Euro: Range trading with downside risks against US Dollar – UOB

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that EUR/USD has slipped after testing 1.1460, with increasing downward momentum but major support at 1.1360 seen as difficult to reach near term. For the coming 1–3 weeks, they expect EUR/USD to remain in a 1.1360–1.1450 range. On a multi‑week view, a break of the 1.1390/1.1410 support zone would target 1.1210.

Euro seen confined in set band

"24-HOUR VIEW: EUR rose to a high of 1.1449 last Thursday. When it was at 1.1430 on Friday, we highlighted the following: “The slight increase in upward momentum suggests EUR may retest 1.1450. A continued rise above this level is unlikely. Support is at 1.1420; a breach of 1.1405 would mean that the prevailing mild upward pressure has eased.” We were not wrong, as EUR rose to 1.1460 and then dropped back down to 1.1410. EUR closed at 1.1413, but it opened with a slight gap down this morning. While the increasing downward momentum suggests EUR could decline further, the major support at 1.1360 could be out of reach. Note that there is another support level at 1.1375. To sustain the downward momentum, EUR must hold below 1.1420, with minor resistance at 1.1405."

"Our most recent narrative was from last Thursday (09 Jul, spot at 1.1420), when we highlighted that EUR “has likely moved back into a range-trading phase, expected to be between 1.1360 and 1.1450.” After EUR rose to 1.1449, we highlighted on Friday that “although EUR subsequently rose to 1.1449, there has been no clear increase in upward momentum.” We also highlighted that “looking ahead, with momentum remaining flat, a break above 1.1450 is likely to result in a broader trading range rather than a sustained move higher.” Although EUR subsequently rose above 1.1450 with a high of 1.1460, it retreated from the high. The price action still appears to be part of a range-trading phase, and for the time being, we continue to expect EUR to trade between 1.1360 and 1.1450"

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD holds losses below 1.3400 amid escalating US-Iran tensions

GBP/USD finds some support near 1.3370 after a modest gap-down opening, though it lacks bullish conviction and remains below 1.3400. The pair suffers from a return of haven demand for the US Dollar amid renewed US-Iran military attacks and the resultant closure of the Strait of Hormuz. All eyes remain on Mideast updates and central bank talks.

EUR/USD battles 1.1400 amid USD strength, Iran risks

EUR/USD stays defensively close to 1.1400 in European trading on Monday. The pair faces headwinds as the US Dollar starts the week on a strong note on increased safe-haven appeal, following the weekend escalation between the US and Iran. However, hawkish ECB expectations limit the major's downside ahead of speeches from the Fed and ECB policymakers.

Gold seems vulnerable amid Iran risks reviving inflation fears, Fed hike bets

Gold maintains its offered tone through the Asian session, and currently trades just above $4,050, down nearly 1.40% for the day. A further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, along with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, lifts crude oil prices and revives inflation fears. This, in turn, bolsters expectations of higher interest rates by the US Federal Reserve, which benefits the safe-haven US Dollar, and drives flows away from the bullion.

Cardano: Ongoing whale accumulation fails to halt downward correction

Cardano (ADA) extends its losses, trading below $$0.160 after falling over 14% in the previous week. Despite on-chain data showing continued accumulation by whales, the buying activity has failed to lift prices. Meanwhile, bearish derivatives metrics and a weakening technical outlook indicate further downside for ADA.

The US won't default on $39 trillion debt: Why financial repression is coming and Gold is the only hedge

As the US national debt surges past $39 trillion, policymakers face an unsustainable economic trajectory that threatens the global financial system. With a formal default out of the question and fiscal austerity politically unfeasible, the US government is increasingly likely to rely on financial repression, artificially keeping interest rates below inflation to erode the real value of its debt.

Five sessions, one round trip: Why the whipsaw is exactly what Warsh ordered

Markets opened July with a December hike as the base case and spent five trading sessions unlearning and relearning it. A 57K payrolls print bled the tightening bets out of the strip; a re-shut Strait of Hormuz is pushing them back in. Wednesday's minutes from the June FOMC meeting landed mid-round-trip, describing a world that had already stopped existing.