Bitcoin stuck between $77,000 and $80,000 as spot demand lags

Bitcoin (BTC) could remain trapped between $77,000 and $80,000 in the near term, with rallies toward $81,300 likely to face selling pressure as spot demand remains weak, according to crypto exchange Bitfinex.

Bitcoin recovery faces resistance near $81K

In Bitfinex Alpha’s Tuesday report, the exchange analysts stated that Bitcoin's immediate price outlook remains constrained by the $77,000 to $80,000 support zone, where investors acquired roughly 1.05 million BTC, up from 738,000 BTC on October 28. However, buying activity around this range appears largely passive — resting bids absorbing sells — leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to renewed selling pressure.

“The current buying we are seeing inside the $77-80,000 band is passive, not aggressive,” Bitfinex wrote.

The $81,300 level represents the next significant hurdle, where investors looking to exit their positions could limit further gains.

The options market also points to continued volatility, with implied price movements suggesting a potential trading range between $74,400 and $81,750 through the November 6 expiry.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin's derivatives market has continued to attract capital despite the top crypto's recent decline.

Aggregate futures open interest increased 12.1% from its October 12 low to 694,728 BTC on October 31, even as Bitcoin's price fell 5.3%. Funding rates also remained positive, reaching annualized levels of 17% on some major perpetual futures exchanges during the October 30 sell-off. This suggests leveraged traders continued positioning for a recovery despite weakening prices, Bitfinex noted.

However, spot demand has failed to keep pace, with US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recording $643.2 million in outflows on October 30, their largest daily withdrawal since June 25.

The withdrawals made October the first month of net ETF outflows since June, following $6.36 billion in combined inflows across July, August and September.

Bitfinex warned that Bitcoin's recovery could remain stalled without sustained aggressive buying in the spot market.

Bitcoin needs to reclaim $80K to improve outlook

Bitcoin's ability to recover and hold above $80,000 remains a key condition for improving its near-term outlook, according to trading firm Wintermute’s Tuesday report.

The firm maintained a cautious position, arguing that the recent rebound lacks evidence of fresh capital entering through spot markets.

"We would stop being short-term cautious if Bitcoin reclaims $80K and holds it with the bid coming from spot and ETF flow," Wintermute stated.

The firm identified Bitcoin's 50-week moving average near $76,800 as the next important support level. A sustained break below it would increase downside risks.

Wintermute added that the market remains under pressure after the $6.3 billion Binance hack late Thursday. The incident triggered roughly $1.5 billion in liquidations, around 85% of which involved leveraged long positions.

Wintermute said traders initially bought the decline mainly through perpetual futures rather than spot markets, leaving the recovery without sufficient fresh spot demand.

“Bitcoin has lost [the] $80K level. And while not for the macro reasons we flagged, the market still feels heavy post the $1.5b liquidation on the back of Binance last week,” the firm added.

BTC is trading at $77,660, up 0.2% in the past 24 hours at the time of writing.