AUD/USD trades with modest intraday losses, hold above 0.6400 as traders keenly await US NFP

AUD/USD moves away from over a one-month high touched on Thursday.
The downtick lacks any fundamental catalyst and is likely to remain limited.
Australian Retail Sales data does little to provide any impetus to the major.
Traders now look to China’s Caixin Service PMI ahead of the US NFP report.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The AUD/USD pair extends the previous day's late pullback from the 0.6455 area, or over a one-month high and remains under some selling pressure through the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.6420-0.6415 region, down over 0.10% for the day, and for now, seem to have snapped a two-day winning streak.

The downtick, meanwhile, could be attributed to a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick amid some repositioning trade ahead of the closely-watched US monthly employment details, due for release later during the early North American session. The popularly known NFP report, in particular wage growth figures, could influence market expectations about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) future rate-hike path. This, in turn, will drive the USD demand and provide a fresh directional impetus to the AUD/USD pair.

Heading into the key data risk, expectations that the Fed may be done raising interest rates might keep a lid on any meaningful upside for the USD. Apart from this, the prevalent risk-on environment might hold back traders from placing bullish bets around the safe-haven Greenback and act as a tailwind for the risk-sensitive Aussie. This, along with bets for more interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), supports prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying around the AUD/USD pair.

In the meantime, data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that Australia’s Retail Sales, a measure of the country’s consumer spending, rose 0.2% QoQ in the third quarter as compared to a 0.6% drop in the previous quarter. The data, meanwhile, does little to provide any meaningful impetus to the AUD/USD pair. Next on tap is the release of Caixin China Services PMI, which could assist traders to grab short-term opportunities, though the immediate reaction is likely to be limited.

From a technical perspective, the previous day’s sustained strength and close above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), for the first time since July, adds credence to the positive outlook. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside. Hence, a move towards testing the 100-day SMA hurdle, currently pegged just above the 0.6500 psychological mark, looks like a distinct possibility. Nevertheless, the AUD/USD pair seems poised to end in the green for the third straight week.

Technical levels to watch

AUD/USD

Overview
Today last price	0.6427
Today Daily Change	-0.0007
Today Daily Change %	-0.11
Today daily open	0.6434

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.6357
Daily SMA50	0.6391
Daily SMA100	0.6519
Daily SMA200	0.6625

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.6456
Previous Daily Low	0.6389
Previous Weekly High	0.64
Previous Weekly Low	0.627
Previous Monthly High	0.6445
Previous Monthly Low	0.627
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.643
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.6415
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.6397
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.636
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.633
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.6464
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.6493
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.653

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7100 after Australia's weak PMIs

AUD/USD remains range-bound around 0.7100 during the Asian session on Wednesday after Australia's flash PMIs showed manufacturing slipped into contraction and services expanding slowly for a second straight month. Furthermore, a bullish US Dollar acts as a headwind for the pair as traders keenly await the crucial Trump-Xi summit on Thursday.

USD/JPY stands firm near mid-157.00s, close to two-week high

USD/JPY hovers around mid-157.00s during the Asian session on Wednesday, near a two-week high touched last Friday as the BoJ's dovish rate hike continues to undermine the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains bullish amid the Fed's hawkish stance and geopolitical uncertainties, adding support to the pair, though JPY intervention fears cap further gains.

Gold makes a U-turn; focus shifts to $4,400

Gold regains balance and now trades with decent gains, approaching the key $4,400 mark per troy ounce on Tuesday. The yellow metal’s advance comes despite the resumption of the buying interest in the US Dollar, mixed US Treasury yields and geopolitical uncertainty.

Bitcoin reclaims key moving averages, altering bear cycle pattern

Bitcoin (BTC) may have altered its bear-cycle pattern after climbing above its 50-day, 100-day, 200-day, and 200-week moving averages, according to K33. In a Tuesday report, K33 noted that every time Bitcoin reclaimed all four major averages before now, it happened after the market had already established its cycle low.

Trump meets Xi: Why markets are watching this summit so closely

United States (US) President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set to meet in Washington on Thursday for a summit closely watched by markets. After several months of easing trade tensions between the US and China, the meeting could determine whether the world's two largest economies extend their truce or enter a new period of uncertainty.

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks.