AUD/USD sticks to gains around mid-0.6400s, over one-week high post-Australian jobs data
- AUD/USD climbs to a one-and-half-week high on Thursday, albeit lacks follow-through.
- The uncertainty over the Fed's rate-hike path weighs on the USD and lends some support.
- The mostly upbeat Australian employment details do little to provide impetus to the major.
The AUD/USD pair builds on the previous day's post-US CPI bounce from the 0.6380 area and gains some follow-through traction during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices stick to gains around mid-0.6400s, or a one-and-half-week top and react little to the latest Australian employment details.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the number of employed people rose by 64.9K in August as compared to the 23K expected and a loss of 14.6K in the previous month. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, is forecast to hold steady at 3.7% despite a rise in the Participation Rate to 67% in August. The data, however, does little to provide a fresh impetus to the AUD/USD pair amid speculations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might have already ended its rate-hiking cycle.
Apart from this, persistent worries about the worsening economic conditions in China – Australia's largest trading partner – hold back traders from placing fresh bets around the China-proxy Aussie. The downside for the AUD/USD pair, however, seems limited in the wake of a mildly softer tone surrounding the US Dollar (USD). In the absence of any big surprises from the US consumer inflation figures, growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep rates steady weighs on the buck.
In fact, the US central bank is widely expected to maintain the status quo at its monetary policy meeting next week. That said, bets for one more Fed rate hike move by the end of this year should help limit any meaningful downside for the USD. the current market pricing indicates a more than 50% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) lift-off either in November or December. This, in turn, warrants some caution for the USD bears and before positioning for any further appreciating move for the AUD/USD pair.
Market participants now look to the US economic docket – featuring the release of the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Producer Price Index (PPI) and monthly Retail Sales later during the early North American session. The data, along with the post-ECB volatility in the markets, might influence the USD price dynamics and produce short-term trading opportunities around the AUD/USD pair.
Technical levels to watch
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
