AUD/USD Price Forecast: Struggles near 0.7100, lowest since April 14 amid bullish USD
- AUD/USD struggles to register any meaningful recovery from its lowest level since mid-April.
- Geopolitical risks and Fed rate hike bets underpin the USD, acting as a headwind for the pair.
- The technical setup favors bearish traders and backs the case for a further depreciating move.
The AUD/USD pair remains on the defensive through the Asian session on Wednesday and currently trades around the 0.7100 mark, just above its lowest level since April 14, touched the previous day.
Traders have ramped up their bets for an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) amid worries that the Iran war-led surge in energy prices would rekindle inflationary pressures. This assists the US Dollar (USD) in preserving its recent strong gains to a six-week high, offsetting the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hawkish stance and weighing on the AUD/USD pair.
Spot prices keep a bearish near-term tone following the overnight fall below the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-May upswing. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is marginally negative while the line sits below the signal and the zero line.
This, in turn, reinforces persistent downside pressure even as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in oversold territory near 28, hinting that any rebounds would likely be corrective. Meanwhile, initial support aligns with the 50.0% retracement near 0.7059, ahead of a deeper cushion at the 61.8% Fibo. around 0.7008, with broader structural floors seen at 0.6935 and 0.6843.
On the topside, a recovery would first need to overcome the 38.2% retracement at 0.7110, with further resistance emerging at the 200-period EMA near 0.7153 and the 23.6% retracement at 0.7173. Only a move toward the cycle high region around 0.7275 would start to ease the broader bearish bias and set the stage for the resumption of the prior well-established uptrend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
AUD/USD 4-hour chart
US Dollar Price Last 7 Days
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 1.20% | 1.11% | 0.95% | 0.46% | 1.99% | 2.11% | 1.18% | |
| EUR | -1.20% | -0.10% | -0.33% | -0.75% | 0.81% | 0.93% | -0.04% | |
| GBP | -1.11% | 0.10% | -0.26% | -0.66% | 0.85% | 1.01% | 0.04% | |
| JPY | -0.95% | 0.33% | 0.26% | -0.41% | 1.11% | 1.18% | 0.26% | |
| CAD | -0.46% | 0.75% | 0.66% | 0.41% | 1.54% | 1.60% | 0.70% | |
| AUD | -1.99% | -0.81% | -0.85% | -1.11% | -1.54% | 0.11% | -0.84% | |
| NZD | -2.11% | -0.93% | -1.01% | -1.18% | -1.60% | -0.11% | -0.94% | |
| CHF | -1.18% | 0.04% | -0.04% | -0.26% | -0.70% | 0.84% | 0.94% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
