|

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Retreats further from multi-week top but holds above 0.6900

  • AUD/USD kicks off the new week on a weaker note as escalating US-Iran tensions boost the USD.
  • The recent repeated failures to make it through the 38.2% Fibo. level warrants caution for bulls.
  • A break below the 200-day SMA and the 50% Fibo. is needed to back the case for further losses.

The AUD/USD pair builds on its modest weekly bearish gap opening and retreats further from a two-and-a-half-week top, near the 0.6970 region, touched on Friday. Spot prices drop to the 0.6930-0.6925 area during the Asian session as escalating US-Iran tensions underpin the safe-haven US Dollar (USD).

Furthermore, a fresh leg up in Crude Oil prices revives inflationary concerns and bolsters US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets, which provide an additional boost to the Greenback. However, a bullish technical setup warrants caution before confirming that the AUD/USD pair's recent recovery from a multi-month low, touched in June, has run out of steam.

From a technical perspective, the currency pair stays above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level of the November 2025-May 2026 rally. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains marginally positive, hinting at a mild recovery and validating the positive outlook.

That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 42 still reflects only a tentative improvement from recently weak momentum. Furthermore, the recent repeated failures to break through the 38.2% Fibo. The level warrants some caution before placing aggressive bullish bets on the AUD/USD pair as the market focus shifts to the latest US inflation figures this week.

In the meantime, immediate support is reinforced by the 200-day SMA at 0.6878, ahead of the 50.0% retracement level at 0.6849. A deeper protection emerges at the 61.8% Fibo. level around 0.6747, where buyers would be expected to reassert themselves on a more meaningful pullback.

On the flip side, a sustained strength beyond the 38.2% Fibo. at 0.6951 is needed to back the case for additional gains towards the 23.6% retracement near 0.7077, which, if cleared, would give way to unlock a more decisive advance.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

AUD/USD daily chart

Chart Analysis AUD/USD

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.18%0.16%0.23%0.07%0.26%-0.07%0.16%
EUR-0.18%-0.01%0.04%-0.11%0.09%-0.21%-0.00%
GBP-0.16%0.01%0.07%-0.10%0.14%-0.18%0.05%
JPY-0.23%-0.04%-0.07%-0.16%0.04%-0.26%-0.01%
CAD-0.07%0.11%0.10%0.16%0.20%-0.08%0.15%
AUD-0.26%-0.09%-0.14%-0.04%-0.20%-0.26%-0.03%
NZD0.07%0.21%0.18%0.26%0.08%0.26%0.24%
CHF-0.16%0.00%-0.05%0.01%-0.15%0.03%-0.24%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Author

Haresh Menghani

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

More from Haresh Menghani
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD languishes near weekly low, below 1.3600 as USD bulls await Warsh's speech

The GBP/USD pair is seen consolidating near the lower end of its weekly range, below the 1.3600 mark, during the Asian session. The downside, however, remains cushioned as traders look for more cues about the US Federal Reserve's interest rate path before placing fresh directional bets.

EUR/USD holds gains above 1.1650 on hawkish ECB bias

The EUR/USD pair edges higher to around 1.1655 during the early Asian session. A hawkish stance of the European Central Bank provides some support to the Euro against the US Dollar. Traders will closely monitor the Jackson Hole Symposium event later on Friday for fresh impetus.

Gold keeps sight of $4,700 ahead of Fed Warsh’s speech
Gold is making another run to retest 15-week highs of $4,697 early Thursday. Gold traders are taking advantage of an upbeat mood-led US Dollar (USD) retreat, looking past hot US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for July. Renewed USD weakness offers the much-needed boost to Gold, following Wednesday’s pullback from near the $4,675 neighbourhood.
Bitcoin holds at $78,000 amid US PCE surprise – SPX6900, VeChain rally

The broader cryptocurrency market maintains a constructive tone, with Bitcoin (BTC) sustaining gains above $78,000 on Thursday. The US July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index inflation came in higher than expected on Wednesday, suggesting that inflation remains elevated. SPX6900 (SPX) and VeChain (VET) recorded double-digit gains over the last 24 hours, emerging as top performers.

South Korean Won gains on back-to-back BoK interest rate hikes

The South Korean Won trades higher against the US Dollar on Thursday, with USD/KRW falling 0.3% to near 1,380 during the Asian trading session. The pair revisits its 11-month low as back-to-back interest rate hikes by the Bank of Korea have strengthened the currency.

Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole dilemma: Say too much, too little, or just enough

Kevin Warsh is preparing to deliver his first Jackson Hole speech as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair on Friday, and expectations extend well beyond whether interest rates will be raised or left unchanged in September.