Chinese Yuan: PBoC defends yuan narrative – Commerzbank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Commerzbank’s FX team highlights that the People’s Bank of China rejected claims the yuan is undervalued, linking export strength to industrial competitiveness rather than currency manipulation. The central bank will start reporting FX operations to the IMF from 2027, while reserves slipped to USD3.40tn. In FX, USD/CNY fell 30 pips to 6.70, with USD/CNH little changed at 6.70.

Policy paper counters undervaluation claims

"The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) issued a policy paper rejecting claims that the yuan is undervalued, arguing that China's export strength reflects industrial competitiveness rather than currency manipulation."

"The statement came as EU trade officials opened two days of talks with Chinese counterparts, with Brussels increasingly framing bilateral trade imbalances as a currency issue. The PBoC’s paper signals Beijing’s intent to shape the narrative before any formal demands on exchange rate adjustment can gain traction."

"PBoC argued there is no linear relationship between the exchange rate and the current account balance, and that past periods of yuan depreciation did not accelerate China’s export market share gains. The central bank also announced that China will begin reporting foreign exchange operation data to the IMF starting in 2027, a concession to longstanding calls for greater transparency."

"Credit demand remains sluggish, and the investment-led policy push has not yet generated a broader economic rebound. China’s foreign exchange reserves fell to USD3.40tn at end-September (Bloomberg consensus: USD3.43tn) vs USD3.44tn at end-August, partly reflecting valuation effects from gold price weakness during the month."

"The move is modest in scope but notable in timing, offering a goodwill gesture to multilateral institutions as bilateral trade tensions with Europe escalate. Separately, the broader global push back against Chinese export dominance is intensifying, with France and Germany pushing the European Commission toward more assertive protective measures."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD bulls regain control above 0.6950 amid USD retreat

AUD/USD regains traction and extends the previous day's bounce from the weekly low, aiming for 0.7000 in Asia on Friday. The overnight pullback in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar below an 18-month high, which in turn offers some support to the pair. Meanwhile, hawkish RBA expectations also keep the major underpinned.

USD/JPY holds gains near 158.00 after Japan's weak Household Spending data

USD/JPY clings to gains around 158.00 after data showed on Friday that Japan's Household Spending fell for the ninth straight month, undermining the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains depressed as the overnight fall in US bond yields counters a hawkish Fed and geopolitical uncertainties, could cap any downside in the pair.

Gold remains range-bound below $4,200

Gold has given up some ground after an initial bullish attempt to reach weekly highs, returning to below the $4,200 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The US Dollar’s strong upside momentum, combined with rising US Treasury yields across the curve, seems to keep further gains in the yellow metal under scrutiny.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?

The Euro is not the sick man of Europe. France's bond market is

EUR/USD remains under pressure, near the 17-month low of 1.1161 reached on Monday. The pair has lost more than 7% since its yearly peak, as concerns over France's public finances increasingly weigh on the single currency. But behind the weakness of the Euro (EUR), the problem does not necessarily lie with the European economy as a whole.