AUD/USD Price Forecast: Holds above 0.7100 amid retreating USD; 100-SMA holds the key
- AUD/USD attracts some buyers on Thursday as retreating US bond yields prompt USD profit-taking.
- The Fed’s hawkish outlook and geopolitical risks could limit deeper USD losses, capping spot prices.
- The mixed technical setup warrants some caution before positioning for a further appreciating move.
The AUD/USD pair gains some positive traction on Thursday, snapping a three-day losing streak to the 0.7075 area, or a nearly one-month low, touched the previous day. Spot prices stick to intraday gains through the first half of the European session and currently trade just above the 0.7100 mark, up 0.30% for the day.
US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh’s focus on inflation helps calm the recent selloff in the fixed-income market. This, in turn, triggers a modest pullback in US bond yields, which prompts some US Dollar (USD) profit-taking. Apart from this, bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise interest rates later this month offer support to the AUD/USD pair.
However, the Fed's hawkish outlook, signaling one more rate hike this year, along with inflation risks stemming from higher oil prices, could act as a tailwind for US bond yields. Furthermore, escalating tensions in the Middle East keep the geopolitical risk premium in play, which should limit deeper losses for the safe-haven buck and cap the upside for the AUD/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, spot prices climb back above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-September upswing after showing some resilience below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This suggests that buyers retain control, albeit momentum indicators hint that upside pressure is losing intensity rather than signaling a decisive reversal.
In fact, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45.6 has slipped back toward neutral, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned negative with a contracting profile. Hence, any further move up might confront immediate resistance at the 23.6% Fibo. at 0.7150, with a break above this barrier exposing the recent swing high zone at 0.7238.
On the downside, initial support aligns at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at 0.7095, followed by a deeper structural floor at the 50.0% retracement near 0.7051 and the 61.8% retracement at 0.7007. Below these levels, broader corrective risks would open the way for deeper losses toward the 78.6% retracement at 0.6945 and the cycle low around 0.6865.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
AUD/USD daily chart
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.06% | -0.02% | -0.31% | -0.00% | -0.35% | -0.35% | -0.11% | |
| EUR | 0.06% | 0.04% | -0.23% | 0.06% | -0.31% | -0.26% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | 0.02% | -0.04% | -0.27% | 0.03% | -0.34% | -0.30% | -0.05% | |
| JPY | 0.31% | 0.23% | 0.27% | 0.26% | -0.04% | -0.06% | 0.19% | |
| CAD | 0.00% | -0.06% | -0.03% | -0.26% | -0.33% | -0.32% | -0.06% | |
| AUD | 0.35% | 0.31% | 0.34% | 0.04% | 0.33% | 0.04% | 0.25% | |
| NZD | 0.35% | 0.26% | 0.30% | 0.06% | 0.32% | -0.04% | 0.28% | |
| CHF | 0.11% | 0.03% | 0.05% | -0.19% | 0.06% | -0.25% | -0.28% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
