AUD/USD Price Forecast: Holds above 0.7000; 100-day EMA holds the key ahead of RBA

AUD/USD attracts fresh sellers in reaction to China’s disappointing official PMIs over the weekend.
Geopolitical uncertainties act as a tailwind for the USD, further exerting pressure on spot prices.
The technical setup warrants caution for bearish traders ahead of the RBA decision on Tuesday.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The AUD/USD pair shows minor downward movement at the start of a new week, trading near the 0.7020 region, down around 0.15% for the day during the Asian session. Traders, however, might refrain from placing fresh directional bets ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision on Tuesday.

The Australian central bank is widely expected to deliver a 25 basis point (bps) rate hike at the end of the November meeting amid persistent inflationary pressures. However, China's disappointing official PMIs, released over the weekend, exert some downward pressure on the Aussie. Furthermore, geopolitical uncertainties act as a tailwind for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and contribute to the offered tone surrounding the AUD/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair remains capped beneath the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.7046 and is now lodged under the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.7026, suggesting that recent recovery is losing momentum. That said, momentum oscillators look constructive, hinting at a consolidative tone rather than a decisive breakdown and warranting some caution for aggressive bearish traders.

In fact, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) holds above its signal line and is marginally positive, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the neutral 50 mark. Hence, any subsequent slide below the 0.7000 psychological mark could find immediate support at the 23.6% retracement at 0.6976, while a deeper slide would expose the structural low near 0.6894, where buyers may attempt to reassert a medium-term floor.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 38.2% Fibo. at 0.7026, followed by the 50.0% level at 0.7067 and the 61.8% retracement at 0.7107, with the 78.6% barrier at 0.7165 and the cycle high at 0.7239 reinforcing a broader supply zone.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

AUD/USD daily chart

Economic Indicator

RBA Interest Rate Decision

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Likewise, if the RBA has a dovish view on the Australian economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for AUD.

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