AUD/USD Price Forecast: Hangs near monthly low, seems vulnerable below mid-0.7100s
- AUD/USD meets with a fresh supply as geopolitics and Fed rate hike bets revive USD demand.
- Hawkish RBA Minutes fail to impress the Aussie bulls or lend any support to the currency pair.
- The technical setup seems tilted in favor of bearish traders and backs the case for further losses.
The AUD/USD pair maintains its offered tone through the early European session on Tuesday and currently trades around the 0.7130-0.7125 region, just above the monthly low touched the previous day.
Persistent geopolitical uncertainties, along with rising bets for an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026, assist the US Dollar (USD) in regaining positive traction following the previous day's pullback from the highest level since April 7. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor exerting downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair.
Meanwhile, Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) May policy meeting reaffirmed market expectations for another interest rate hike at the August meeting. This, however, fails to impress the Aussie bulls or lend any support to the AUD/USD pair, suggesting that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the downside.
From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair maintains a bearish near-term bias below the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-May upswing. Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index (14) hovers just above oversold territory near 32, hinting at persistent downside pressure.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly negative and flat, suggesting that bearish momentum is present but not accelerating. Hence, any further decline could find initial support at the 38.2% Fibo. near 0.7108, with further bearish extension exposing the 50.0% retracement at 0.7056 and the 61.8% level around 0.7004.
On the topside, a recovery would first need to clear the 23.6% retracement at 0.7173, followed by the 100-period EMA at 0.7187, while a more decisive shift in sentiment would only emerge on a break toward the cycle high area near 0.7277.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
AUD/USD 4-hour chart
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.22% | 0.31% | 0.16% | 0.06% | 0.52% | 0.33% | 0.21% | |
| EUR | -0.22% | 0.10% | -0.06% | -0.16% | 0.32% | 0.14% | -0.00% | |
| GBP | -0.31% | -0.10% | -0.13% | -0.26% | 0.21% | 0.04% | -0.10% | |
| JPY | -0.16% | 0.06% | 0.13% | -0.12% | 0.34% | 0.17% | 0.03% | |
| CAD | -0.06% | 0.16% | 0.26% | 0.12% | 0.46% | 0.28% | 0.15% | |
| AUD | -0.52% | -0.32% | -0.21% | -0.34% | -0.46% | -0.16% | -0.30% | |
| NZD | -0.33% | -0.14% | -0.04% | -0.17% | -0.28% | 0.16% | -0.14% | |
| CHF | -0.21% | 0.00% | 0.10% | -0.03% | -0.15% | 0.30% | 0.14% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
