AUD/USD Price Forecast: Flat lines below mid-0.7000s/100-SMA as bulls await US NFP

AUD/USD stalls this week’s modest pullback from the highest level since June 17.
Iran risks and Fed-hike bets underpin the USD, capping the upside for spot prices.
The technical setup favors bulls as the market focus remains on the US NFP report.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The AUD/USD pair finds some support near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June corrective slide and, for now, seems to have stalled its pullback from the highest level since June 17, around 0.7065, touched earlier this week. Spot prices, however, struggle to attract meaningful buyers as geopolitical uncertainties continue to support the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) ahead of the crucial US monthly employment details.

The closely watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will be looked for fresh cues about the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy path. The outlook, in turn, would drive the US Dollar (USD) and provide a fresh impetus to the AUD/USD pair. In the meantime, the US-Iran standoff acts as a tailwind for crude oil prices, reviving inflation fears and bolstering bets for at least one Fed rate hike in 2026. This is seen acting as a tailwind for the USD and capping the upside for the currency pair.

From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair's inability to build on this week's strength above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the subsequent failure near the 50% Fibo. level warrants some caution for bulls. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 56 suggests moderately constructive momentum, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator holds slightly positive. Moreover, spot prices hold comfortably above the 200-day SMA at 0.6923.

The long-term moving average remains well below the current price, hinting at broader downside protection. Hence, any further weakness below the 38.2% Fibo. level and the 0.7000 psychological mark could find decent support near the 23.6% level at 0.6966 and the 200-day SMA at 0.6923. Further down, the structural floor near 0.6870 is expected to act as a more significant medium-term base for the AUD/USD pair if short-term bearish pressure resumes.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 100-day SMA at 0.7052, followed by the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7074 and the 61.8% level at 0.7122, with higher barriers emerging at 0.7190 and 0.7277.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

AUD/USD daily chart

Economic Indicator

Nonfarm Payrolls

The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.

Why it matters to traders?

America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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