AUD/USD Price Forecast: Consolidates near 0.7000 as bulls await 38.2% Fibo. breakout
- AUD/USD extends the range play as US-Iran diplomacy hopes keep USD bulls on the defensive.
- Hawkish RBA expectations counter Fed hike bets and contribute to the subdued price action.
- A sustained strength beyond the 38.2% Fibo. is needed to back the case for additional gains.
The AUD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on a modest Asian session uptick and extends its sideways consolidative price move around the 0.7000 psychological mark on Wednesday.
The US Dollar (USD) preserves its recent strong gains registered over the past four days amid escalating US-Iran tensions and expectations that energy-driven inflation would force the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to hike rates in 2026. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the AUD/USD pair.
However, speculations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will tighten policy further might continue to lend some support to the Australian Dollar (AUD). Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive bearish bets on the AUD/USD pair and opt to wait for the Australian June employment data on Thursday.
From a technical perspective, spot prices, so far, have been struggling to make it through the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June downfall. Hence, acceptance above the said barrier is needed to back the case for an extension of the AUD/USD pair's recent bounce from the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
Meanwhile, momentum indicators remain supportive, with the Relative Strength Index (14) hovering just above the neutral 50 area and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator showing a positive reading. This hints at sustained buying interest as long as the AUD/USD pair stays supported on dips.
In the meantime, nearby support below the current area is seen around the 23.6% retracement at 0.6955, with the 200-day SMA at 0.6894 protecting any further pullback ahead of the broader structural floor around the Fibonacci anchor at 0.6857.
On the topside, strength beyond the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at 0.7015 should allow the AUD/USD pair to accelerate the positive move towards the 50.0% level at 0.7064 and the 61.8% retracement at 0.7113. The next relevant resistances are aligned at 0.7182 and 0.7271, subsequent Fibonacci barriers.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
AUD/USD daily chart
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.18% | 0.52% | 0.51% | 0.64% | -0.48% | 0.15% | 0.55% | |
| EUR | -0.18% | 0.35% | 0.28% | 0.46% | -0.65% | -0.04% | 0.36% | |
| GBP | -0.52% | -0.35% | -0.09% | 0.11% | -1.00% | -0.38% | 0.06% | |
| JPY | -0.51% | -0.28% | 0.09% | 0.21% | -0.94% | -0.42% | 0.14% | |
| CAD | -0.64% | -0.46% | -0.11% | -0.21% | -1.07% | -0.63% | -0.05% | |
| AUD | 0.48% | 0.65% | 1.00% | 0.94% | 1.07% | 0.62% | 1.04% | |
| NZD | -0.15% | 0.04% | 0.38% | 0.42% | 0.63% | -0.62% | 0.44% | |
| CHF | -0.55% | -0.36% | -0.06% | -0.14% | 0.05% | -1.04% | -0.44% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
