AUD/USD Price Forecast: Consolidates around 0.6850 as bears await break below 100-day SMA
- AUD/USD enters a bearish consolidation phase near a two-month low set on Monday.
- The hawkish RBA Minutes and Iran de-escalation hopes offer some support to the pair.
- The technical setup seems tilted in favor of bears and backs the case for deeper losses.
The AUD/USD pair seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses during the Asian session on Tuesday and consolidates its recent losses registered over the past week or so, to its lowest level in over two months, touched the previous day. Spot prices currently trade around mid-0.6800s, nearly unchanged for the day, amid mixed fundamental cues.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) draws some support from the hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting Minutes, showing that board members agreed further tightening would likely be needed. Adding to this, reviving hopes for a de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East boosts investors' confidence, prompting a modest US Dollar (USD) pullback from the year-to-date and further benefiting the risk-sensitive AUD/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, spot prices find some support near the rising 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), around the 0.6820 area, which tempers the downside. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stays below its signal line in negative territory, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slips toward 36, both reinforcing fading bullish momentum and favoring further corrective pressure.
The 100-day SMA is closely followed by the the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the November-March move higher, around the 0.6800 round figure, which should act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders. Some follow-through selling below the said support would turn the focus toward the 61.8% Fibo. level at 0.6713. A clear break under 0.6713 would open the path toward the 78.6% level at 0.6586 and signal a deeper fall.
On the flip side, the initial strong resistance emerges at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at 0.6892. A sustained recovery above 0.6892 would expose the 23.6% retracement at 0.7003, where sellers previously capped advances. Nevertheless, the near-term bias is mildly bearish as the AUD/USD pair holds well below the 23.6% Fibo. retracement near the 0.7000 psychological mark.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
(This story was corrected on March 31 at 08:13 GMT to say that the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, not the 38.2% Fibo., should act as a pivotal point, and the initial strong resistance emerges at the 38.2% Fibo., not 50%.)
AUD/USD daily chart
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
