Australian Dollar holds near highs as mixed data keeps RBA tightening bets alive

AUD/USD is holding near multi-week highs around 0.7100, a touch softer on the day as the US Dollar firms.
Australia's latest jobs data disappointed, but firmer inflation expectations keep the Reserve Bank of Australia's tightening bias in play.
Friday's preliminary PMIs are the next domestic test, with the prior surveys all sitting in expansion.

Agustin Wazne FXStreet

AUD/USD is trading in the 0.7100 neighborhood at the time of writing on Thursday, holding close to multi-week highs after a steady climb off its earlier lows. The pair is marginally weaker on the day as the US Dollar (USD) regains a little ground, but the broader uptrend remains intact.

The most recent Australian employment report came in weak, pointing to a labor market that is cooling faster than expected after months of resilience. Meanwhile, inflation expectations have pushed higher. This mix muddies the outlook rather than clarifying it.

For the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the softer jobs numbers argue for patience, but sticky price pressures and rising expectations keep a tightening bias on the table. The Board held the cash rate at 4.35% at its August meeting and warned it could raise if upside inflation risks build. That lingering hawkish lean is part of what has kept the Aussie supported near its highs.

The near-term focus now shifts to Friday's United States (US) flash Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures, the most important domestic release still to come this week. The previous readings all sat comfortably in expansion, and traders will watch whether that momentum holds.

Short-term technical analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7115, retaining a modest bullish bias as it holds above both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7104 and the 100-period SMA at 0.7053. The nearby horizontal support at 0.7103 reinforces this constructive stance, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 58 suggests mildly positive momentum without reaching overbought territory.

On the topside, initial resistance aligns at 0.7120, followed closely by clustered barriers at 0.7124 and 0.7132, where buying pressure could start to fade. On the downside, the 20-period SMA at 0.7104 and the horizontal floor at 0.7103 form the first support band, with the 100-period SMA at 0.7053 underpinning the broader advance in case of a deeper pullback.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Author

Agustin Wazne

FXStreet

Agustin Wazne joined FXStreet as a Junior News Editor, focusing on Commodities and covering Majors.

AUD/USD bounces back toward 0.6950 on fresh USD supply

AUD/USD bounces back toward 0.6950 in the Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar retreats from 17-month highs as traders take profits off the table ahead of the all-important US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar draws support from reviving expectations of a November interest rate hike amid elevated global yields and inflation risks.

USD/JPY struggles near 158.00 as USD retreats ahead of NFP

USD/JPY is struggling for fresh impetus near 158.00, moving away from the top end of its weekly range in the Asian session on Friday, after hotter-than-expected Tokyo CPI and amid a broad US Dollar retreat. Traders reposition themselves ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls.

Gold fades the earlier optimism; back below $4,200

Gold could not sustain the post-NFP bull run past the $4,200 mark per troy ounce, receding toward the $4,180 region at the end of the week. The precious metal’s inconclusive price action comes amid fresh selling pressure hurting the US Dollar as investors assess the latest NFP data.

Week ahead: Fed minutes in the spotlight amid bond market rout

The first full week of October and the final quarter of the year get underway with little fanfare in terms of the economic agenda. But far from being short on excitement, the coming week will test market nerves, as government bond yields continue to soar on growing worries that the energy crisis will only get worse, fuelling inflation.

CFTC Report: Speculators turn more defensive as Oil exposure falls

The week in one sentence: During the week leading up to September 29, long positions in crude oil were significantly reduced, while short positions in the Canadian Dollar went up. In addition, the positioning of the Australian Dollar and the Japanese Yen declined, while Coffee buying stood out against a more general background of defensiveness.

The Euro is near a one-year low: Inflation could trigger its rebound, not its fall

EUR/USD has fallen to its lowest level since May 2025. The pair hit 1.1312 on Wednesday and trades well below the January peak of 1.2082. The decline reflects a powerful combination of US Dollar strength, geopolitical uncertainty and renewed concerns about Europe's exposure to higher energy prices.