AUD/USD: Likely to gain if Australian inflation data surprises to the upside – Commerzbank

The monthly CPI, due out on Wednesday, is one of the last data points before the next interest RBA rate decision. Economists at Commerzbank analyze how the figures could impact the Aussie.

RBA is likely to pause again in early July

As the RBA now appears to be approaching the peak of the current interest rate cycle, and with the RBA's preferred quarterly inflation data due next month, the central bank is likely to pause again in early July. 

However, if the inflation figures continue to point to rising inflationary pressures, another rate hike could well follow in August. As a result, the Australian Dollar is likely to gain if tomorrow's data surprises to the upside.

See – Australia CPI Preview: Forecasts from five major banks, easing annual inflation