AUD/USD Forecast: More losses likely while under 0.6500

Matías Salord FXStreet

AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6482

Australian Wage Price Index is due on Tuesday; RBA will release minutes.
The US Dollar remains strong support by higher US Yields.
The bias remains to the downside for AUD/USD, however, some consolidation ahead seems likely.

The AUD/USD pair bottomed on Monday at 0.6454, reaching the lowest intraday level since November. It then rebounded toward 0.6500. However, the pair remains under pressure due to the strength of the US Dollar. Tuesday is expected to be a busy day, with important economic data releases from both Australia and the US.

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release the meeting minutes. No surprises are expected. In that meeting, the RBA decided to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 4.10% to assess the impact of monetary tightening and the economic outlook. Additionally, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the Wage Price Index for the second quarter, which is expected to remain at 3.7%. Market participants will also pay attention to Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales data.

The US Dollar peaked on Monday at monthly highs and then the rally lost momentum. Following last week's data, market participants anticipate that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates further. However, the US Dollar holds firm. The performance of the US economy remains one of the key drivers. On Tuesday, US Retail Sales figures are scheduled to be released.
If market sentiment improves, the Aussie could benefit. However, an upbeat report from the US could reignite the Greenback's rally. It is worth noting that the US Dollar has been strengthening for more than a week and may require additional catalysts to sustain its upward trend.

AUD/USD short-term technical outlook

The AUD/USD dropped for the fifth consecutive day on Monday. However, it finished far from the highs, indicating a potential for consolidation in the coming hours. The US Dollar has lost momentum but the overall trend remains firm, and the pair is likely to see fresh lows if it stays below 0.6500.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in a range between 0.6450 and 0.6500. The support at 0.6450 has been tested twice and held. A break below this level could trigger a bearish acceleration targeting the 0.6400 area. Currently, technical indicators do not strongly suggest more losses, but there are also no signs of a bullish correction. A move above 0.6500 would alleviate the bearish pressure. A dynamic resistance (downtrend line) is anticipated at 0.6555.

Support levels: 0.6450 0.6420 0.6395

Resistance levels: 0.6510 0.6540 0.6570

View Live Chart for the AUD/USD

Author

Matías Salord

FXStreet

Matías started in financial markets in 2008, after graduating in Economics. He was trained in chart analysis and then became an educator. He also studied Journalism. He started writing analyses for specialized websites before joining FXStreet.

AUD/USD turns lower toward 0.7000 after mixed Australian jobs data

AUD/USD is losing ground toward 0.7000 in the Asian session on Thursday, following the release of the Australian August jobs report, which showed that the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.6% versus 4.5% expected, while Employment Change beat estimates, arriving at 39.5K. Traders also remain unnerved ahead of the critical Trump-Xi meeting.

USD/JPY keeps the red near 158.00 as Japanese Yen firms up

USD/JPY retreats from three-week highs and holds losses near 158.00 in the Asian session on Thursday. Surging Japanese bond yields lift the Yen amid looming intervention risks, while the US Dollar preserves overnight gains to a two-month high amid hawkish Fed bets and elevated US bond yields.

Gold struggles near one-week low as traders await Trump-Xi meeting amid Fed hike bets

Gold sticks to a negative bias for the second straight day, trading below the $4,300 mark or a one-week low during the first half of the European session as traders await a crucial meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Expectations for a major announcement are low, though market players will look for any progress on rare earths, technology restrictions, and an extension of the current US-China truce.

Bitcoin slips to $84,000 on rate hike bets – Worldcoin, Pepe lead losses

Bitcoin (BTC) price trades below $84,000 on Thursday, extending losses after a 2% decline the previous day. The pullback aligns with renewed inflation and rate-hike concerns, as US composite and services PMIs rose to 58.4 and 58.7 in September. Worldcoin (WLD) and Pepe (PEPE) recorded double-digit losses over the last 24 hours, emerging as the worst performers.

SNB leaves interest rates unchanged at 0%

Swiss National Bank leaves its key policy rates unchanged at 0%, as expected by market particiapnts. The key highlights of SNB’s monetary policy assessment are as followed: Banks' sight deposits held at the SNB will be remunerated at the SNB policy rate up to a certain threshold. SNB sees 2026 inflation at 0.7% (previous forecast was for 0.6%). The main risk to the economic outlook for Switzerland stems from developments in the global economy.

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks.