AUD/USD climbs to three-week top, around 0.6800 as USD selling remains unabated

AUD/USD climbs to a three-week high and is supported by sustained selling around the USD.
The softer US CPI reaffirms that the Fed will end its rate-hiking cycle and weighs on the buck.
A positive risk tone also undermines the safe-haven USD and benefits the risk-sensitive Aussie.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The AUD/USD pair edges higher during the Asian session on Thursday and looks to build on the overnight breakout rally through a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Spot prices currently trade near a three-week top and remain well supported by the prevailing US Dollar (USD) selling bias, with bulls now awaiting a sustained strength beyond the 0.6800 mark before placing fresh bets.

The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, plunges to its lowest level since April 2022 in the aftermath of softer US consumer inflation figures released on Wednesday. In fact, the headline CPI rose 0.3% in June, while the monthly rise was the smallest since August 2021. Furthermore, the yearly rate decelerated to 4.8% - also the smallest increase in more than two-year. Further moderation in consumer prices reinforced speculations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates only one more time this year.

Expectations that the Fed is nearing the end of its policy tightening cycle lead to a further decline in the US Treasury bond yields and continue to weigh on the buck, which turns out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the AUD/USD pair. Apart from this, the prevalent risk-on mood - as depicted by an extension of the recent rally in the equity markets - is also seen undermining the safe-haven Greenback and benefitting the risk-sensitive Aussie. This, along with the overnight sustained strength beyond the very important 200-day SMA favours bullish traders.

The outlook is reinforced by the fact that technical indicators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in the positive territory and are still far from being in the overbought zone. That said, the Relative Strength (RSI) on hourly charts is flashing slightly overbought conditions and holding back bulls from placing fresh bets around the AUD/USD pair or positioning for any further appreciating move. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the upside.

Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, featuring the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims later during the early North American session. This, along with the US bond yields and the broader risk sentiment, will influence the USD price dynamics and provide some impetus to the AUD/USD pair ahead of the key Chinese macro data next Monday.

Technical levels to watch

AUD/USD

Overview
Today last price	0.6793
Today Daily Change	0.0007
Today Daily Change %	0.10
Today daily open	0.6786

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.6718
Daily SMA50	0.6681
Daily SMA100	0.6683
Daily SMA200	0.6701

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.6796
Previous Daily Low	0.6682
Previous Weekly High	0.6705
Previous Weekly Low	0.6599
Previous Monthly High	0.69
Previous Monthly Low	0.6484
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.6753
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.6726
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.6713
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.6641
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.6599
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.6827
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.6869
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.6941

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

AUD/USD: The 0.7000 level holds the downside…for now

AUD/USD has clinched its fourth consecutive daily pullback on Thursday, coming closer to the key 0.7000 region while breaking below the critical 200-day SMA at the same time. The Aussie’s decline comes on the back of further gains in the Greenback in a context of rising yields and Fed rate hike bets.

USD/JPY keeps the red near 158.00 as Japanese Yen firms up

USD/JPY retreats from three-week highs and holds losses near 158.00 in the Asian session on Thursday. Surging Japanese bond yields lift the Yen amid looming intervention risks, while the US Dollar preserves overnight gains to a two-month high amid hawkish Fed bets and elevated US bond yields.

Gold bounces off lows, still below $4,300

Gold builds on Wednesday’s retracement, briefly slipping back below $4,250 per troy ounce to attempt a lacklustre rebound afterwards. The better tone in the US Dollar, rising US Treasury yields and expectation of extra rate hikes by the Fed continue to weigh on the precious metal in the latter part of Thursday’s NA session.

XRP is flashing three bullish signals heading into a historically weak October

XRP (XRP) is still flashing 3 bullish signals across its holders, derivatives, and ETF data. These signals come as the token gave back part of its September gains on Thursday. The token traded near $1.50 at press time, down about 6.3% over 24 hours, according to BeInCrypto Markets data. The pullback still leaves XRP up over 15.6% on the week, a gain that tracks a broader market rally.

Advanced economies: From one example of resilience to another

History tends to repeat itself in advanced economies. Once again, growth ultimately fell short of expectations by only a small margin in the first half of 2026, despite the conflict in Iran. As early as 2025, the impact of tariffs was less severe than feared.

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks.