AUD/USD bounces-back above 0.75 amid rising bets of earlier RBA rate hike

AUD/USD is staging a decent comeback above 0.7500, in a turnaround from daily lows of 0.7480, as the investors shrug off the risk-off market mood amidst rising bets of an earlier rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

In evidence of increased hawkish expectations from the RBA, the Australian April 2024 bond yield jumped to 0.5%, five times higher than the central bank’s target of 0.1%. This comes after the country’s RBA Trimmed Mean CPI rose to 0.7% QOQ in Q3 vs. 0.5% expectations and 0.5% last. Additionally, the central bank did not buy AUD1.6 billion ($1.2 billion) of longer-dated securities to defend its yield target.

Surging price pressures fanned RBA rate hike calls, with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) bringing forward its rate hike expectations to November 2022 from previous bets for a May 2023 hike. The bank said that Wednesday’s Q3 CPI data was an inflection point.

However, the renewed upside in the pair could lack follow-through buying, as the US dollar remains on the front foot amid persisting risk-off mood. The US earnings reports underscored the supply chain crisis amid the persistence of growing price pressures, weighing down on the investors’ sentiment.

Investors also remain cautious ahead of the critical US Q3 GDP release, which could throw further light on the economic recovery while the Fed remains on track to scale back bond-buying next month.

AUD/USD technical levels to consider