AUD/USD appreciates to near 0.6550 following MI Inflation Gauge, China’s NBS PMI data

AUD/USD edges higher as TD-MI Inflation Gauge rose 0.1% MoM in June, against a 0.4% previous decline.
China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI climbed to 49.7, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.5 in June.
The US Dollar may struggle due to the rising odds of the Fed delivering a rate cut in September.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

AUD/USD gains ground after registering losses in the previous session, trading around 0.6540 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair remains stronger following the release of economic data from Australia.

TD-MI Inflation Gauge edged up 0.1% month-over-month in June, reversing a 0.4% previous decline. The rise came even as both headline and underlying inflation continued to ease within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 2–3% target range.

Australia's Private Sector Credit climbed to 0.5% month-over-month in May, against the market expectations and the prior month's 0.7% rise. The slowdown was primarily due to a deceleration in business loans, which eased to 0.8% from 1% in April.

In Australia’s close trading partner, China, NBS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) advanced to 49.7 in June, compared with 49.5 in May. The data came in line with the market consensus in the reported month. The NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5 in June versus May’s 50.3 and the expected 50.3 reading.

The AUD/USD pair also draws support from the subdued US Dollar (USD), driven by the increasing odds of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cutting interest rates at the September meeting. Data showed on Friday that US Personal Spending unexpectedly fell in May, the second decline this year. Meanwhile, US Personal income dropped by 0.4% in May, the largest decrease since September 2021.

Traders await key US labor data scheduled to be released later in the week to gain a further idea of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy outlook. The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is expected to show 110,000 new jobs added, down from 135,000 in May. Markets currently estimate the range between a high of 140,000 and a low of 75,000. Moreover, Unemployment is anticipated to tick higher to 4.3% from 4.2%.

Australian Dollar FAQs

What key factors drive the Australian Dollar?

One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.

How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar?

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.

How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar?

China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.

How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar?

Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar?

The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

FXStreet

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

AUD/USD falls to near 0.7100 after slipping below 50-day EMA

AUD/USD depreciates after registering minor gains in the previous day, trading around 0.7120 during the Asian hours. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows the pair consolidating sideways within a rectangle pattern, as neither bulls nor bears gain control. The AUD/USD pair is holding a slight bearish tone however as it sits beneath both the nine-day and 50-day EMAs.

160.00: USD/JPY back near intervention territory after upbeat US jobs report

US Nonfarm Payrolls beat expectations by a wide margin in May, with 172K jobs added. The US Dollar rebounds after the release, helping USD/JPY recover from its intraday lows. Warnings from Japanese authorities continue to limit upside potential near the 160.00 threshold.

Gold weakens to three-month lows near $4,300

Gold faces increasing selling interest and approaches the area of three-month lows near the $4,300 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The precious metal’s decline comes as traders assess the stronger-than-expected NFP, while the bid bias in the Greenback and higher US Treasury yields also collaborate with the retracement.

Cardano hits five-year low even as Hoskinson clarifies "break" isn't an exit

Cardano (ADA) price is down 10% at press time on Friday, extending losses over 30% so far this week amid Charles Hoskinson's clarification that "break" isn't an exit.

Week ahead – Fed countdown begins amid US inflation data and geopolitical risks

Fed Chair Warsh’s first meeting approaches as key US inflation data could reshape expectations. Oil prices remain elevated as US-Iran talks continue; tariffs also return to the spotlight. ECB is expected to hike; will it be a one-off move or is July live?

The US economy defies the rules: 100 days into the Oil shock and the recession signal is still missing

More than three months after the start of the Iran war and the resulting disruption to global energy markets, the US economy continues to display remarkable resilience. The conflict has triggered a sharp rise in Oil prices, reignited inflationary pressures and fueled widespread concerns about a potential economic slowdown.