AUD/JPY trips over RBA Meeting Minutes that fail to impress AUD bulls

  • Aussie hesitates on middling RBA minutes that continue to spread their bets.
  • China GDP figures up next, but unlikely to drive much as markets are well priced in.

The AUD/JPY is trading tightly within Monday's range, testing into 83.15 following the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) Meeting Minutes.

RBA Minutes: more of the same

The RBA dropped their Meeting Minutes, and most of the points discussed were plainly telegraphed by the RBA's Governor, Philip Lowe, at his previous speech, not to mention much of the mileage has been the same for the RBA for an extended period. The RBA is still confident that the next rate move will 'likely' be up, but when that could be remains anybody's guess as the central bank remains hopeful on growth, but is keeping expectations low, also reiterating their cautions that an increasing AUD would be bad for rate increases. The Aussie is dropping slightly on reaction from the meeting minutes as the RBA continues to drag a toe on monetary policy, and traders could be turning on Australia's central bank as their inaction continues to walk the fine line between being a symptom of struggling economic growth, and being the cause.

Next up in the Asia session will be China GDP figures, and high movement is unlikely to be generated by the release, with Chinese GDP figures coming in within spitting distance of every Bloomberg median forecast since 2016. This time around, China's first-quarter GDP year-on-year is expected at 6.7 percent, a slight downtick compared to the previous figure of 6.8.

AUD/JPY Levels to watch

The Aussie's technical outlook against the Yen is holding steady as the Daily candles slowly climb from of 80.50 in late March, but this has less to do with intrinsic strength in the Aussie and more about the Yen walking back from an overvalued position in the broader markets, and a successful scaling of last week's high at the 84.00 major handle will run into further resistance at March's high of 84.50, with support pricing in from the last swing low at 82.70 and further support from March's lows from 81.25 to 80.50.

 

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