Australian Dollar refreshes monthly top as hawkish RBA counters USD uptick

AUD/USD is prolonging its recent recovery from a multi-month low for the fourth straight day.
The recent hawkish comments from RBA officials continue to act as a tailwind for the Aussie.
Geopolitical risks and Fed hike bets support the USD, though fail to hinder the pair’s move up.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The AUD/USD pair gains follow-through positive traction for the fourth straight day on Wednesday, extending its recovery from sub-0.6900 levels, or the lowest since early July, touched last week. The momentum lifts spot prices to a fresh monthly high, around the 0.7030 area, during the first half of the European session and is sponsored by the recent hawkish comments from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) officials.

In fact, RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent said on Monday that there are reasonable indications that neutral interest rates are increasing both domestically and globally. Furthermore, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warned earlier today that Q3 trimmed-mean inflation may run hotter than expected, keeping rate hike expectations alive ahead of the November 3 policy meeting. Adding to this, China's better-than-expected Q3 GDP print turns out to be another factor acting as a tailwind for the Australian Dollar (AUD).

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) struggles to attract any meaningful buyers amid hopes for US-Iran peace talks. However, the geopolitical risk premium remains in play amid the uncertainty surrounding the Middle East crisis and the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz. Apart from this, the growing acceptance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise borrowing costs again in December amid oil-driven inflation fears acts as a tailwind for the safe-haven buck. This, however, does little to hinder the AUD/USD pair's positive move.

This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the upside and any corrective pullback is likely to be bought into. Traders now look forward to the release of global flash PMIs, due on Friday, though the focus will remain glued to the closely-watched two-day FOMC meeting, starting next Tuesday. Apart from this, traders will take cues from the Advance US Q3 GDP print and the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, scheduled for next Thursday.

AUD/USD daily chart

Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair holds just beneath the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7034 and below the mid-range 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7064, which keeps the near-term bias bearish. Spot prices, however, remain capped by this overhead cluster of the SMA and successive Fibonacci levels at 0.7104 and 0.7162, suggesting rallies could face resistance near the aforementioned levels.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at 0.7024, with the 23.6% level at 0.6974 protecting the recent pullback and a deeper structural floor near 0.6893. As long as the AUD/USD pair holds below the 100-day SMA at 0.7034, a break under 0.7024 would open the way toward 0.6974 and potentially 0.6893.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Australian Dollar Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies this week. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.29%	-0.65%	0.05%	-0.47%	-0.98%	-0.53%	-0.22%
EUR	0.29%		-0.33%	0.37%	-0.11%	-0.62%	-0.21%	0.10%
GBP	0.65%	0.33%		0.72%	0.23%	-0.27%	0.12%	0.48%
JPY	-0.05%	-0.37%	-0.72%		-0.50%	-1.03%	-0.57%	-0.15%
CAD	0.47%	0.11%	-0.23%	0.50%		-0.53%	-0.03%	0.29%
AUD	0.98%	0.62%	0.27%	1.03%	0.53%		0.39%	0.72%
NZD	0.53%	0.21%	-0.12%	0.57%	0.03%	-0.39%		0.36%
CHF	0.22%	-0.10%	-0.48%	0.15%	-0.29%	-0.72%	-0.36%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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