Why Bitcoin’s September decline could be the best buying opportunity for the rest of 2025

In the final week of September, Bitcoin experienced sharp volatility. Its price fell below $112,000, marking a daily drop of over 3%—the steepest single-day loss since the start of the month.

Many analysts worry the decline could deepen. However, data suggests this may be the best buying opportunity until the end of the year.

Strong Fundamental Drivers Support a Bitcoin Recovery in October

First, the recent Bitcoin price drop has not shaken investor confidence. On-chain data from exchanges reflects this trend.

CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin reserves on exchanges fell to a new low of 2.4 million BTC in September.

The chart reveals a steep downward slope, indicating growing scarcity on exchanges. This trend persists even though BTC in Q3 has only traded around $115,000 sideways instead of surging like in the previous quarter.

Bitcoin Exchange Reserve. Source: CryptoQuant

This on-chain trend signals strong accumulation and off-exchange storage, reinforcing expectations of an imminent recovery.

This aligns with a recent QCP Group report stating that institutional support for Bitcoin remains firm despite price weakness.

“Despite near-term weakness, institutional support remains firm. Strategy and Metaplanet continue to add, while spot ETF inflows last week signal sustained dip-buying.” — QCP Group reported.

Second, historical patterns show September is typically Bitcoin’s weakest month. From 2010 to 2024, BTC recorded an average loss of -3.18%, often due to post-summer corrections and macroeconomic volatility.

October, however, has been the “golden month,” averaging +21.89% growth and often marking a strong rebound.

Bitcoin Monthly Return. Source: Coinglass.

From this perspective, Bitcoin’s late September decline is not surprising. Instead, it opens an opportunity for investors to buy and position for October’s gains.

“BTC is still +4% in September, a month that is seasonally weak for crypto. Traders are also positioning for October, historically BTC’s strongest month, with active demand for 120k–125k Calls.” — QCP Group added.

Beyond October, Q4 tends to deliver Bitcoin’s best performance. According to Coinglass, the average Q4 return is 85%.

Third, Tether increased its USDT issuance in September, reflecting rising demand for stablecoins.

CoinMarketCap data shows USDT’s market cap climbed from $167 billion to $172.8 billion within a month. The chart slopes upward more steeply toward the end of September, indicating accelerated minting activity.

Tether (USDT) Market Cap. Source: CoinMarketCap.

Combined with record-high USDT balances on centralized exchanges—reaching $47.8 billion according to CryptoQuant—this trend boosts liquidity and potential buying power.

Tether (ERC20) on Exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant

In other words, ample “dry powder” is ready to flow into the market in October.

September’s weakness in 2025 may prove temporary. On-chain data signals that this could be a favorable time to accumulate BTC ahead of a potential year-end rally. Still, careful capital management and preparation for unexpected volatility remain essential.