Ethereum flashes bear market signal after four months — What are analysts saying?

Ethereum (ETH) is showing rare and concerning signals as November begins. However, analysts still have reasons to remain optimistic, even though market sentiment has not recovered since the sharp crash on October 11.

What are these warning signs, and can Ethereum hold steady in November? The following analysis examines them more closely.

Warning signs for Ethereum in November

The Buy/Sell Pressure Delta — a key indicator measuring the imbalance between buying and selling pressure — has turned negative for the first time in four months.

This indicator is calculated from exchange trading data and reflects the balance between buy and sell forces. When it’s positive, buying pressure dominates, often leading to price increases. When it turns negative, selling pressure takes over and may push prices lower.

Ethereum Buy/Sell Pressure Delta. Source: Alphractal.

Historically, when the Buy/Sell Pressure Delta drops below zero, the market usually faces one of two main scenarios.

Bearish scenario

In the first case, the market enters a prolonged downtrend — but only if the indicator stays deeply negative. For example, between February and April 2025, it remained in negative territory, causing ETH to lose over 20% of its value in two months.

Recent observations also reveal selling activity that could further weaken the indicator. According to data from Lookonchain on X, an ETH whale dumped 10,000 ETH (worth $39.11 million) at the end of October. The whale had bought the tokens two months earlier, taking a $7.5 million loss.

Moreover, Spot ETF Net Inflow data showed a negative flow of $81 million on October 29.

A separate analysis by BeInCrypto found that long-term Ethereum holders engaged in heavy selling in October — the largest sell-off since July — adding new downward pressure on prices.

Bullish Scenario

The second scenario suggests that ETH may be near its bottom, especially if the selling pressure is temporary. On-chain analytics platform Alphratal believes this could happen now, as some short-term retail investors appear to be exiting positions.

Several on-chain data points support this view. Analyst Ali observed that 200,000 ETH, worth roughly $780 million, were withdrawn from exchanges between October 28 and 29. This pushed exchange balances to a record low.

Ethereum Exchange Reserve. Source: CryptoQuant.

“ETH supply on exchanges continues to reach record lows. There is currently only about 15 million ETH — or 12% of the total supply — available on centralized exchanges,” Crypto-Gucci.eth noted.

The increasing amount of ETH being withdrawn from exchanges indicates growing long-term investor confidence in the coming months, regardless of the price correction seen in October.

Both scenarios present compelling data and arguments. This leaves traders without an active position in a difficult spot, as they may need to wait for further price confirmation.

However, for those already exposed to ETH, protecting profits and managing risk have become essential, especially as price volatility continues to intensify.