Can Bitcoin rise above 100k as Altcoin season arrives?

The Bitcoin price is trading around 96.5k, consolidating below its all-time high of 99.8k after an immense rally of almost 130% year-to-date. A series of events have boosted BTC but the token is struggling to make the final push over the key 100k milestone. The big question is can Bitcoin take 100k and push higher? 

Bitcoin has rallied 85% since its halving event in April, which saw miner rewards reduced to 3.125 BTC per block. This, in line with previous cycles, triggered a supply shock, boosting the price to 99.8k in November. 

Macro factors such as major central banks kicking off rate-cutting cycles and geopolitical risk driving digital gold demand have helped institutional interest. On-chain metrics, such as rising active addresses, falling balances on exchange, and growing open interest, add to the bullish picture, as does the election of pro-crypto candidate Trump.  

However, the price is now facing some challenges, such as worries surrounding increased supply and falling Bitcoin dominance. 

Yesterday, the BTC price briefly dipped below 94k on worries the US government could be looking to sell 10k BTC after transferring the coins worth $1.92 billion to two separate Coinbase wallets. This could be a potential sell signal, especially given the government’s history of selling seized Bitcoin.  

The US government has around 0.93% of the total Bitcoin supply, so selling a portion of this could put pressure on the Bitcoin price, as we have seen in previous cases of a sell-off following major transfers. 

Bitcoin dominance falls, Altcoin season arrives 

More broadly, the price is facing challenges as Bitcoin’s dominance has fallen to 55.6%. This suggests investors are booking Bitcoin profits and rotating into higher-risk altcoins, which points to the arrival of altcoin season and a diversifying market. 

The start of altcoin season is marked by at least 75% of the Top 50 coins performing better than Bitcoin across the past 90 days. Today, this level is 90%, meaning altcoin season has started. 

Some examples of strong altcoin performance include Ethereum which has shown bullish form in recent sessions as it breaks out from an 8-month correction in a similar pattern to Bitcoin ahead of its November rally. 

XRP has risen 370% over the past month, with its market capitalization closing in on $150 billion. The token has flipped USDT and Solana as the larger market cap thanks in part to an improving fundamental backdrop as SEC Chair Gary Gensler will step down from January 20th. 

So can Bitcoin retake 100k even in Altcoin season? 

There is a chance that this altcoin season will be different, that the rise in altcoins doesn’t depend on a rotation out of Bitcoin, but instead will come from an increase in volume into the crypto market and real market growth.  

While retail investors drove earlier cycles, the current bull market has seen strong capital inflows through ETFs. These institutional investors bring a level of credibility and stability that could help Bitcoin push beyond 100,000, while altcoins also have their moment. 

Where next for Bitcoin? 

After breaking out of its seven-month falling channel, Bitcoin surged to a record high of 99.8k. The price remains in a broad uptrend above its 50,100 and 200 SMAs. However, the recent volume points to fading momentum. The price has consolidated more recently between 95k and 98.1k, bringing the RSI out of overbought territory. 

Buyers might look to wait for a rise over 100k with rising volume to enter a buy position.  

Sellers might look to enter a sell position below 91K with rising volumes. A break below here opens the door to 85.5k when the price forms a lower low. 

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