Can Bitcoin extend gains above the key 80k level?

Bitcoin climbed to $80,000 — a three-month high — supported by improving risk sentiment across global markets and continued institutional demand. 

The largest cryptocurrency is up around 1.7% over the past 24 hours, extending gains from last week, which marked its fifth consecutive weekly advance — the longest winning streak since July last year. Major altcoins are also higher, with Ethereum up 2.1% and XRP rising 1.6%. 

Risk-on backdrop drives crypto higher 

The move higher reflects a broader risk-on environment. 

US equities remain close to record highs after gains of nearly 1% in the S&P 500 last week, while Asian equities — tracked by the MSCI Asia Pacific Index — are approaching all-time highs, supported by strong technology earnings last week. 

Investor sentiment in crypto is also improving. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen to 41, moving into Neutral territory after months in Fear and Extreme Fear, signalling a gradual shift away from defensive positioning. 

Geopolitics remains a key variable 

Markets are continuing to navigate mixed signals from the Middle East. 

President Trump said the US Navy would guide non-combat vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran rejected the move, warning it could breach ceasefire terms. 

Oil prices initially fell at the start of the week but have since rebounded to around $110 per barrel, reflecting ongoing uncertainty around supply conditions. This remains a critical driver for Bitcoin, given that higher oil prices lift inflationary concerns and treasury yields. 

ETF inflows underpin the move 

Institutional demand continues to support the rally. According to SoSoValue data, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $629.7 million in net inflows on Friday, pushing the week back into positive territory and marking a fifth consecutive week of inflows. 

Sustained ETF demand is helping to absorb supply and could support Bitcoin’s attempt to hold above the $80K level — a key psychological and technical threshold. 

Key catalysts ahead 

Several upcoming events could determine whether Bitcoin breaks decisively above $80K or faces another rejection. 

• US Nonfarm Payrolls (Friday): The first jobs report since the Fed’s hawkish hold. Strong data would reinforce a higher-for-longer rate outlook, while weaker data could revive expectations for rate cuts.  
• Corporate earnings: Results from crypto-linked firms, including Coinbase, MARA Holdings, CleanSpark, Hut 8, and Strategy, alongside broader S&P 500 earnings, could influence risk appetite. 100 S&P 500 firms report this week. 
• Fed speakers: Multiple Federal Reserve officials are due to speak this week, offering further clarity on policy direction following last week’s meeting.  

BTC technical forecast 

BTC/USDT trades within an ascending channel since early of February. The price has risen above its multi-month falling trendline dating back to the 126k October high and is now testing 80k resistance, the round number, and the upper band of the rising channel. 

Buyers, supported by momentum, will look to extend gains above 80k to expose the 200 SMA at 83.5k. Above here, buyers could gain traction towards 85k, the 38.2% Fib retracement of the 126k high and 60k low. Ahead of 94k, the 50% Fib retracement. 

On the downside, support is seen at 75k, the round number, the midpoint of the rising channel, and the 23.6% Fib retracement. A break below here exposes the 50 SMA at 72.5k and 70k, the lower band of the rising channel. Below here, attention turns to 65k, the April low.