Bitcoin: The golden cross signals an uptrend, but not right away

Market overview

The crypto market capitalisation has risen by a modest 0.4% over the past 24 hours to $2.7T, while it has generally remained within a narrow range for over two weeks now. Cryptocurrencies have ceased to receive signals from the equity market, where volatility has fallen sharply in recent days, and from regulators, whose regulatory news flow remains on hold. Nevertheless, from a broader perspective, we continue to view this as a bullish pause, anticipating further upward momentum following this lull. Notable movements over the past day include gains for Cosmos (+18%), Polkadot (+11%) and Zcash (+10.5%), while Internet Computer (-6.2%), Uniswap (-3.2%) and Litecoin (-1.4%) have fallen.

Bitcoin remains below the $80K mark, but managed to rebound after a mid-day dip on Tuesday to $77.6K. The simple moving averages formed a ‘golden cross’ on Tuesday – a significant bullish signal in classical technical analysis. In shares and other traditional financial assets, such a signal is typically followed by accelerated growth. For the leading cryptocurrency, the formal crossover of the 50-day moving average above the 200-day moving average in October 2024 and May 2025 failed to deliver a meaningful signal. However, the current situation bears a closer resemblance to what we saw in 2019, when the golden cross appeared following a prolonged bull market, rather than as a correction within an uptrend. Six years ago, this signal was followed by a 90% rally in less than two months. The return of the 50-day moving average above the 200-day moving average in 2020 required more patience, which was ultimately rewarded with a more than sixfold increase over the following 10 months. By contrast, the 2023 golden cross delivered an 110% increase over five months and more than a twofold increase over the next two years. 

News background

Bitcoin is once again trading like gold. In recent weeks, the leading cryptocurrency has once again become more sensitive to concerns regarding the sustainability of US public finances, as noted by CoinShares. However, high interest rates are currently limiting the narrative's potential.

Last week, Strategy neither bought nor sold any Bitcoin, maintaining its reserves at 845,050 BTC. Instead, the company purchased $176.3 million worth of STRC preference shares and doubled its share buyback programme to $2 billion. The week before, Strategy had bought BTC for the first time since mid-June.

BitMine purchased a further 28,086 ETH last week, bringing the total amount of Ethereum in its reserves to 5.93 million coins, or 4.91% of the total supply. To reach its target of acquiring 5% of the total ETH supply, the company needs to purchase a further 106,000 ETH.

The US Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has proposed treating digital assets as property rather than currency, citing the US Congressional Research Service (CRS). Such a classification could have a significant impact on mining, trading and staking. 

Summary: Bitcoin has formed a ‘golden cross’, but the crypto market is currently trading sideways. Historical data points to strong bullish potential, although growth may take time.