Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC struggles amid renewed US-Iran peace uncertainty 

Bitcoin (BTC) trades below $63,000 at the time of writing on Tuesday as conflicting signals from the US and Iran regarding the progress of peace negotiations continue to fuel geopolitical uncertainty. Meanwhile, persistent institutional selling, with spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recording outflows on Monday, caps the Crypto King’s upside despite ongoing diplomatic efforts.

BTC struggles as uncertainty over the US-Iran peace deal persists

Bitcoin price remains under pressure, trading below $63,000 on Tuesday, after Iran signaled it would not allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to access its damaged nuclear facilities, raising fresh concerns.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei also said there had been no meeting with the UN agency’s chief, Rafael Grossi, in Switzerland. His remarks contradicted comments from US Vice President JD Vance, who had suggested the talks included an agreement for IAEA inspections, according to Sky News.

“There was no protocol for such inspections”, Baghaei added.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance pointed to progress in the nuclear negotiations, but Iranian officials insisted that “no new commitments” had been made.

The conflicting statements have renewed uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran negotiations, dampening risk sentiment and keeping investors cautious despite ongoing diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran.

BTC traders are waiting for a cleaner catalyst 

QCP Capital reported on Tuesday that the recent complications surrounding US-Iran peace talks in Switzerland earlier this week have done little to support crypto’s recovery.

“BTC will likely require a confluence of positive catalysts to break decisively out of its current range,” said QCP Capital’s analyst.

The analyst added that this week’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report, to be released on Thursday, will be a key catalyst for markets and could significantly influence interest rate expectations.

“Following recent hawkish rhetoric from policymakers, an upside surprise could reinforce expectations for further policy tightening, while a softer-than-expected reading would likely support crypto and other risk assets," added the report.

Adding to the potential volatility is a sizeable quarter-end rebalancing event. According to JPMorgan, institutional investors may sell as much as $165 billion of equities and purchase a similar amount of bonds by the end of Q2, the largest reallocation in at least four years. Such flows could create meaningful cross-asset volatility as quarter-end approaches.

Selling continues

Institutional demand continues to weaken as the week begins. SoSoValue weekly data show that spot BTC ETFs recorded a mild $68.18 million outflow on Monday, following an $226.84 million outflow last week, marking the sixth consecutive week of withdrawals. While outflows were more muted compared to prior weeks, these continued withdrawals weigh on Bitcoin’s price outlook. If these outflows intensify over the coming days, BTC could see a deeper correction.

On the corporate side, Strategy announced on Monday that the firm has increased its USD Reserve by $300 million to $1.4 billion and plans to continue replenishing it to support the credit quality of its Digital Credit securities. Moreover, the firm also acquired 520 BTC during the same period, bringing the total holdings to 847,363 BTC. This highlights the company’s continued conviction in Bitcoin and aggressive accumulation despite the recent BTC price correction.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC faces rejection from the $64,000 mark

Bitcoin price trades at $62,350 on Tuesday, keeping a bearish near-term bias as it sits well beneath the key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). BTC faced rejection at the horizontal daily resistance level of $64,004 the previous day, suggesting the structure is fragile.

Momentum is mixed, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) subdued near 36. Still, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is holding in positive territory, suggesting selling pressure is losing intensity rather than accelerating.

On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the horizontal level at $64,004, where a recovery would first be challenged before the 50-day EMA at $68,821 and the 100-day EMA at $71,922 come into play as more meaningful caps; beyond these, the 200-day EMA at $77,528 and the prior horizontal barrier near $84,410 define a broader medium-term ceiling. 

On the downside, the immediate focus remains on whether BTC can hold the psychological level of $60,000, as a daily close decisively below this zone would expose the market to a deeper corrective phase.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)