Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC holds $86K as ETF inflows, Fed hike bets ease
- Bitcoin hovers around $86,200 on Monday after three consecutive weeks of gains since mid-September.
- US-listed spot ETFs recorded $241.09 million in inflows last week, extending the positive streak to its third week.
- Market participants trimmed bets on an October Fed rate hike after a weaker-than-expected jobs report, supporting riskier assets such as Bitcoin.
Bitcoin (BTC) holds the $86,000 mark at the time of writing on Monday after three consecutive weeks of gains over 12% since mid-September. Institutional demand supports the bullish price action, with BTC spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recording the third week of positive flows. Meanwhile, easing Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike expectations for October after a weaker-than-expected employment report last week support the Crypto King's upside momentum.
Institutional demand continues to strengthen
Bitcoin’s institutional demand continues to support its price. SoSoValue data show that BTC spot ETFs recorded inflows of $241.09 million last week, marking a third consecutive week of positive flows and indicating robust demand. If this inflow trend continues and intensifies this week, BTC could extend the ongoing rally.
Easing rate hike expectations lift BTC
Market participants trimmed bets on an October Fed rate hike after a weaker-than-expected employment report. US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 29K in September, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday. This figure followed the 133K increase in August (revised from 162K) and missed market expectations of 90K.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed tightening at the October meeting fell to 18.3% on Monday, down from 70% the previous week. These easing expectations for monetary policy tightening support risk assets such as BTC.
Bitcoin technical outlook: Bulls aiming for $90K mark
The Crypto King steadies around $86,000 at the start of this week on Monday, after three consecutive weeks of gains over 12% since mid-September. BTC is nearing the immediate resistance at the 50% retracement level at $87,599 (drawn from the August 2024 low of $49,000 to the October 2025 record high of $126,199), followed by the 100-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $89,832.
If BTC continues its upward move, it could rally toward the 50% retracement level at $87,599. A successful close above it could extend gains toward the 100-week SMA at $89,832, then the key psychological level at $90,000.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart is around 62 and rising, indicating strong bullish momentum. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows rising green histogram bars, further supporting the bullish outlook.
If BTC fails to overcome the 50% retracement level at $87,599 resistance and corrects, it could extend the decline toward the 50-day SMA at $77,201, which roughly coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $78,490.
On the daily chart, BTC maintains a bullish near-term bias, holding well above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) clustered between roughly $75,000 and $79,000. The nearby horizontal level at $85,000 acts as immediate underlying demand, while the daily RSI at 67 stays just below overbought territory, suggesting strong but not yet exhausted upside momentum. The MACD histogram has eased back toward the zero line, hinting that upside pressure is moderating rather than reversing as price consolidates around recent highs.
On the downside, initial support is found at the $85,000 horizontal floor, followed by the 50-day EMA near $79,189, which reinforces the broader uptrend. Below there, the 100-day EMA at about $75,367 and the 200-day EMA at roughly $74,994 form a deeper structural demand zone, ahead of more distant horizontal levels at $66,500 and $62,300.
As long as BTC holds above the $85,000 area, the technical structure favors further consolidation with a bullish bias. At the same time, a daily close below that level would open the door to a corrective slide toward the EMA cluster.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Bitcoin, altcoins, stablecoins FAQs
Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, a virtual currency designed to serve as money. This form of payment cannot be controlled by any one person, group, or entity, which eliminates the need for third-party participation during financial transactions.
Altcoins are any cryptocurrency apart from Bitcoin, but some also regard Ethereum as a non-altcoin because it is from these two cryptocurrencies that forking happens. If this is true, then Litecoin is the first altcoin, forked from the Bitcoin protocol and, therefore, an “improved” version of it.
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to have a stable price, with their value backed by a reserve of the asset it represents. To achieve this, the value of any one stablecoin is pegged to a commodity or financial instrument, such as the US Dollar (USD), with its supply regulated by an algorithm or demand. The main goal of stablecoins is to provide an on/off-ramp for investors willing to trade and invest in cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins also allow investors to store value since cryptocurrencies, in general, are subject to volatility.
Bitcoin dominance is the ratio of Bitcoin's market capitalization to the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies combined. It provides a clear picture of Bitcoin’s interest among investors. A high BTC dominance typically happens before and during a bull run, in which investors resort to investing in relatively stable and high market capitalization cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. A drop in BTC dominance usually means that investors are moving their capital and/or profits to altcoins in a quest for higher returns, which usually triggers an explosion of altcoin rallies.
Author
Manish Chhetri
FXStreet
Manish Chhetri is a crypto specialist with over four years of experience in the cryptocurrency industry.
