Bitcoin nears critical breakout as Elliott Wave count signals a new uptrend

In our July 1 update, when Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at ~$60,000, we found by using the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) and Technical Analysis (TA) that

“…the weight of the evidence points toward the formation of an important low … price needs to confirm this thesis by ultimately breaking back above … $67,256, with a serious warning for the Bears on a move above $65,555.”

Fast forward to three weeks later, and BTC has already surpassed $65,555 and is less than $500 (0.74%) away from the critical $67,256 level, which we see being broken in this potential impulse move higher. See Figure 1 below.

Figure 1: short-term Elliott Wave count for BTC with several technical indicators

Our previous call for higher prices was correct, and we continue to track the potential for five (gray) waves (i, ii, iii, iv, v) higher, contingent on BTC staying above at least $62,474, which is our 3rd warning level for the Bulls and would mean a >60% chance that the current uptrend is over.

As stated in our July 1 update, “since we cannot know whether the 4-year cycles continue to play out, we should use it as one of many reference points. The cycles are not precisely 4 years long and have varied in length over time, often missing the exact marks by a few months. As such, we must incorporate additional reference points, such as the EWP and technical indicators, into our trading and investment decisions. Because it’s the weight of the evidence that provides for the most likely outcome, not the belief in one aspect over another.”

Based on current price action, we view the 4-year cycle, which projects a low around late November, as inaccurate. In addition, we are tracking a potential five-wave advance from the July 1 low. If it materializes, we can be certain that a major low has been struck and that $164-337K will be next within the next 2-3 years.