Bitcoin bulls need a break above 40000 to target the 500-day moving average at 41900/42000

• Bitcoin lower to 36400/36000 as expected but held 300 pips above my next target of 34000.

• Ripple made a low for the day almost exactly at very important 100-week moving average support at 6190/6160. If you were very brave & bought into longs at 6190/6160, worked perfectly hitting targets of 6660/90 & 6900 for profit-taking.

• Ethereum broke the 500 day moving average at 2450/2400 for a sell signal but unexpectedly reversed from 2300.

Daily analysis

Bitcoin beat first resistance at 36300/400 to test second resistance at 39400/450. Bulls need a break above 40000 this weekend to target the 500-day moving average at 41900/42000. Unlikely but if we continue higher look for strong resistance at 44100/400.

Holding second resistance at 39400/450 targets 38000/37800. If we continue lower look for 36400/36000 & probably as far as 34400/34000. Do not be surprised to see a test of very strong support at 100 week moving average at 33000/800 (today's value).

Ripple made a low for the day almost exactly at very important 100-week moving average support at 6190/6160. If you were very brave & bought in to longs at 6190/6160, worked perfectly hitting targets of 6660/90 & 6900 for profit-taking. However we continue higher to 7219. EXPECT VERY STRONG RESISTANCE AT 7270/7370. Shorts need stops above 7450. A break higher is a buy signal targeting 7740/7800.

Holding below 6900 is more negative over the weekend & risks a slide to 6600 before a retest of very important 100 week moving average support at 6190/6160. Longs need stops below 6100. A break lower quickly targets 5800.

Ethereum made a bounce from 100 pips below the big support level & bulls unexpectedly have held prices above 2500 now to regain control. Minor resistance at 2670/90. A break above 2750 signals further gains to 2800, perhaps as far as resistance at 2790/2810. A high for the weekend possible here.

Support at the 500 day moving average at 2450/2400. A break below 2300 can retest the January low at 2160/55. I would not rely on this holding the downside & if we continue lower look for a test of very strong support at 1900/1850. Longs need stops below 1750. If this breaks there is likely to be another very significant move to the downside.