Bitcoin and Gold Outlook: BTC plunges to six-week low as XAU hits one-year low below $3,950

Bitcoin (BTC) declines near $77,000, a six-week low on Friday, amid persistent sell-side pressure in the broader cryptocurrency market after Binance reported a $6.3 billion hack. The security breach continues to weigh on market sentiment, with Bitcoin marking two straight days of declines, as reflected in 24-hour crypto liquidations totaling $1.5 billion.

Gold (XAU/USD), meanwhile, has extended its lower leg below $3,940, testing its one-year low. Broader risk-off sentiment persists as the Federal Reserve (Fed) held interest rates in the 3.75-4.00% range.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh expressed concern over sticky inflation on Wednesday, saying that there has been “essentially no progress” toward reaching the central bank’s 2% target. Warsh reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to restoring price stability.

“I view the Fed’s decision to keep rates unchanged as something the market had largely expected. And, although some may interpret this as a sign that the tightening cycle is over, I wouldn’t say the pause marks its end. Inflation is still high,” Vladimir Tikhomirov, founder of Theorem and co-founder of Algebra, said in an emailed commentary, adding, “So the possibility of another rate increase in December is something the market has to account for.”

Binance security impacts $6 billion as asset recovery efforts continue

The security breach on Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange, is reported to have impacted roughly $6.3 billion, prompting the company to temporarily suspend deposits and withdrawals to allow time for an internal investigation and review.

Binance says the incident may have involved a compromised DevOps engineer’s laptop, which may have let the attacker access a container service where unauthorized withdrawal transactions were submitted.

“We have found no evidence of any wallet private key leak," Binance said on X.

Updates from the exchange show that Binance has been working with blockchain partners, including Tether, Circle and Ripple, to freeze approximately $3 billion on-chain.

Binance has emphasized that user assets are safe and that all losses will be covered under its Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU) program, along with the company’s assets.

In addition to suspending withdrawals and deposits, Binance revoked the affected address authorization and worked with law enforcement and blockchain partners to trace and recover the funds.

Crypto-related scams and fraud remain a key pain point as the industry matures, with the The Chainalysis 2026 Crypto Crime Report indicating a 162% annual increase. Cryptocurrency scams stole $14 billion on-chain, while AI-enabled schemes surged 1,400% annually.

“The sheer scale of this hack makes it look like a one-off, but it isn't. AI is helping attackers find weaknesses faster than companies can fix them, and attacks like this are becoming more common, not less,” The Hashgraph Group CEO, Stefan Deiss, said in a written commentary.

Technical analysis: Bitcoin risks deeper losses

Bitcoin trades at $77,310, holding a bearish near-term bias as price sits below the 100-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) at $77,811 and $80,581, respectively. The pair, however, remains above the 200-day EMA at $76,476, suggesting the broader uptrend is still intact despite the current pullback, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays in negative territory, reinforcing a downside tone as momentum weakens and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slips toward the oversold band at 34.

Immediate resistance emerges at the 100-day EMA around $77,811, with a stronger barrier at the 50-day EMA near $80,581, where sellers could reassert control on any rebound. On the downside, deeper demand lies at the SuperTrend line at $84,056, a prior bullish trigger zone, while more immediate trend support is the 200-day EMA at $76,476. A daily close below this level would likely extend the corrective phase lower.

Technical analysis: Gold sellers retail control

Gold trades at $3,941, extending a bearish tone as it remains clearly below the short, medium and long-term moving averages (EMAs), with the 50-day EMA at $4,186, the 100-day EMA at $4,258 and the 200-day EMA at $4,273.80 all acting as overhead resistance.

The Parabolic SAR at $4,083 reinforces the idea that rallies are capped, while the MACD remains in negative territory with a declining reading, hinting at sustained downside pressure. The RSI at 33 hovers just above oversold conditions, suggesting the sell-off is stretched, but bears still control the near-term trend.

Initial resistance appears at the downward resistance trendline break level near $4,032, ahead of the Parabolic SAR cap at $4,083. Above these, the 50-day EMA at $4,186 is followed by the 100-day EMA at $4,258 and the 200-day EMA at $4,274, forming a dense cluster of supply that would likely limit any corrective bounce.

On the downside, the dataset lacks clearly defined structural supports, so the recent low around the current price region is the immediate reference, with any sustained break under $3,941 likely opening the door to further declines as momentum indicators continue to lean in favor of the bears.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)