XAU/USD price outlook: Gold spot/US Dollar tests 0.786 arc, awaiting directional confirmation

Mohamad Gharib Independent Analyst

Gold spot/US Dollar (XAU/USD): Arc cycle analysis

Overview: Based on Arc Cycle Analysis applied to the 2h chart, Gold Spot/U.S. Dollar is interacting with the 0.786 Arc within the current Arc Cycle. Price remains centered around this Arc, indicating that directional confirmation has not yet been established.

Metric	Reading
Market Bias	Neutral / Undecided
Preferred Scenario	Awaiting Directional Confirmation
Primary Target Zone	Not Applicable
Scenario Confirmation	Not Applicable
Current Arc Level	0.786
Cycle Status	Coiling on Arc
Arc Integrity	Unconfirmed

Market outlook

Price remains centered around the 0.786 Arc, indicating that the market has not yet established a directional bias within the current Arc Cycle. The preferred approach is to await confirmation before anticipating the next significant move.

Author

Mohamad Gharib

Independent Analyst

Mohamad Gharib is a Financial Markets Analyst and Quantitative Researcher with more than 18 years of experience in financial markets, including 15 years as an FX Quant Trader.

GBP/USD stays weak below 1.3600 as USD bulls await Warsh's speech

GBP/USD is consolidating near the lower end of its weekly range, below the 1.3600 mark, during European trading hours on Thursday. The pair's downside, however, remains cushioned as traders await Fed Chair Warsh's speech on Friday for more cues about the US central bank's interest rate path before placing fresh directional bets.

EUR/USD holds range around 1.1650 as USD steadies

EUR/USD keeps its range around 1.1650 in the European session on Thursday. Hawkish ECB expectations support the pair as the US Dollar consolidates after the US PCE data-driven advance. The focus remains on Middle East developments and US Jobless Claims data.

Gold struggles to build on gains as traders await Fed Chair Warsh's speech for rate cues

Gold struggles to capitalize on modest Asian session gains on Thursday and remains below its highest level since May 14, touched earlier this week. Traders now seem hesitant to place aggressive directional bets and wait for US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday for cues on the future policy path. The outlook, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the US Dollar price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the non-yielding bullion.

Ripple eases to $1.40, Solana hits $100, DOGE capped below $0.10

Ripple (XRP) and Dogecoin (DOGE) are facing downside pressure after double-digit gains last week, while Solana (SOL) extends its rally to $100. The technical outlook for XRP, SOL, and DOGE points to potential upside as the broader market sustains a risk-on sentiment.

Jackson Hole kicks off after upside PCE surprise

In China, industrial profits rose 17.6% y/y to CNY 4.58tn in the first seven months of 2026, slowing from an 18.7% increase in January-June. The moderation follows several months of strong profit growth around 20% y/y, supported by higher producer prices and solid manufacturing activity.

Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole dilemma: Say too much, too little, or just enough

Kevin Warsh is preparing to deliver his first Jackson Hole speech as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair on Friday, and expectations extend well beyond whether interest rates will be raised or left unchanged in September.