XAU/USD Price forecast: Gold struggles to extend gains beyond $4,100

XAU/USD Current price: $ 4,082

• A pause in Middle East tit-for-tat attacks pushed Oil prices lower.
• The macroeconomic calendar features central banks’ decisions this week.
• XAU/USD is neutral in the near term, still struggling to run past $4,100.

Spot Gold gapped higher at the beginning of the new week, as a pause in Middle East hostilities underpinned the mood and weighed on the US Dollar (USD). The XAU/USD pair traded as high as $4,116.20 during Asian trading hours, following a pause in strikes between Iran and the United States (US).

News brought relief, despite traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remaining restrained, and what’s next in war developments remains a mystery. Neither the US nor Iran committed to a longer pause or even talks. Still, a sharp decline in Oil prices weighed on USD demand and helped Gold advance. The precious metal retreated from its high but holds on to weekly gains, hovering around $4,080 in the American afternoon.

Data-wise, the US published June Durable Goods Orders, which were up 0.3% in the month, missing the expected 1.6% advance although better than the previous -4%. Beyond war headlines, the macroeconomic calendar features some key figures this week, including the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Also, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday, while the Bank of England (BoE), the Swiss National Bank (SNB), and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will also unveil their monetary policy decisions.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD trades with a neutral stance. The metal is attempting to stabilize with a slight constructive bias as it holds above both the 20-period and 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which suggest underlying demand around $4,078 and $4,074, respectively. However, the broader uptrend looks constrained while price remains below the 200-period SMA at $4,109.90, which caps the topside and keeps gold in a consolidation phase. Momentum is mixed, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator hovering just above the neutral 50 mark and the 14-period Momentum indicator ticking north around its midline, not enough to support additional gains ahead.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD holds just above the 20-day (SMA at $4,071.88, but remains well below the 100- and 200-day SMAs clustered between roughly $4,470 and $4,494, keeping the broader bias capped to the downside. The RSI indicator sits near 48, hinting at neutral strength after the recent pullback, while the 14-day Momentum indicator remains slightly negative, suggesting that recovery attempts lack strong follow-through for now.

On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the 200-period SMA at $4,109.90, followed by the intraday high. A sustained break above this last barrier would be needed to reopen a more decisive bullish phase. On the downside, initial support is seen at a congestion of moving averages around $4,070, followed by the $4,050 price zone. Below the latter, the path clears towards $4,000.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)