XAU/USD Price Forecast: Gold pressured near fresh 2026 lows

XAU/USD Current price: $4,013

• The US Dollar surged to its highest level in over a year amid rate-hike expectations.
• The United States will publish the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge on Thursday.
• XAU/USD battles to retain the $4,000 mark after falling to fresh 2026 lows

Spot Gold traded as low as $3,964 on Wednesday, its lowest since November 2025. The bright metal bounced and regained the $4,000 mark during American trading hours, but undeniable US Dollar (USD) strength persists across the FX board.

The Greenback rallied ever since the United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a hawkish hold following the June monetary policy meeting, erasing speculation of potential interest rate cuts ahead. The rally reached a peak during the European session, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) surpassing the 101 mark and hitting its highest since May 2025.

The USD also recovered on relief, as tensions in the Middle East eased further: traffic through the Strait of Hormuz seems pretty steady, regardless of persistent discussions on whether Iran could or could not control the critical passage. The intraday retracement seems a mere correction within a bullish trend.

The focus now shifts to US data: the country will publish the May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Thursday. Annual inflation as measured by the PCE is seen up 4.1% on a yearly basis, up from the 3.8% posted in April. A higher-than-anticipated reading is likely to boost the odds for interest rate hikes in the US, providing additional support to the USD.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The near-term picture for XAU/USD is bearish. In the four-hour chart, the metal remains decisively below the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,124.98, the 100-period SMA at $4,268.32 and the 200-period SMA at $4,413.03, which collectively frame a heavy topside cap. Momentum conditions reinforce this negative bias, as the 14-period Momentum indicator sits deeply in negative territory and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicators hovers near the 30 line, without signaling yet downward exhaustion.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD also extends its slide beneath all major moving averages and preserves a bearish nbias. The metal remains well below the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,296 and the 200-day SMA at $4,473, while the longer-term 100-day SMA at $4,700 also stays overhead, collectively suggesting persistent downside pressure rather than a completed bottom. Momentum readings are firmly negative, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 31, allowing further weakness before a more meaningful rebound attempt.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 20-period SMA near $4,124.98, where any corrective bounce is likely to face early supply. A sustained break above that barrier would expose the next resistance at the 100-period SMA around $4,268.32, reinforced by the 20-day SMA standing nearby. The mentioned low provides immediate support ahead of the $3,900 mark.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)