XAU/USD Price Forecast: Gold bounces from 2026 lows, remains pressured

Spot Gold seesaws around the $4,000 mark on Thursday, confined to a tight intraday range. The bright metal managed to remain above its recent multi-month low of $3,959, as the US Dollar (USD) lost upward steam, despite holding near fresh one-year highs.

The United States (US) packed macroeconomic calendar brought some relief as it showed growth remained strong throughout the first quarter of the year. The annualized reading of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was upwardly revised to 2.1% from the previous estimate of 1.6%. On the inflation front, data indicated that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index climbed to 4.1% YoY in May from 3.8% in April, as expected. Not good news as inflation doubles the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% goal, but at least in line with expectations. The annual core PCE Price Index also met expectations, printing at 3.4%. Finally, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended January 20 rose by 215K, better than the 225K expected and the previous 227K.

On the Iran war front, news indicated that Israel pulled back from part of its buffer zone in southern Lebanon, according to an official for the US State Department. Also, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that any new transit route through the Strait of Hormuz established without coordination with Tehran is “unacceptable and dangerous.” Market players are paying little attention to the headlines, and still hoping for the best: Oil prices held near recent lows, with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading around $ 71.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

In the daily chart, XAU/USD remains under clear bearish pressure, despite its recent bounce. The pair is holding below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,271.82, the 200-day SMA at $4,474.98, and the 100-day SMA at $4,690.64, which together frame a dominant topside cap and suggest rallies are likely to be sold. Meanwhile, technical indicators have lost their bearish strength but remain below their midlines. The Momentum indicator remains far from suggesting any upcoming directional move, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator hovers around 32, reflecting the ongoing pause in selling rather than suggesting downward exhaustion.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the $4,100 threshold, followed by the more relevant 20-day SMA around $4,271.82. Above that, the 200-day SMA at $4,474.98 represents a more strategic hurdle. The weekly low at $3,959 provides support on the way to $3,900 and below.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)