WTI extends recovery on positive fundamentals but mixed techs warn

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

US CRUDE OIL

WTI rose further on Friday, extending recovery from $58.06 higher base, driven by weaker dollar and renewed optimism over OPEC-led efforts to stabilize oil markets on global production cut.
Oil price maintains bullish stance which was boosted by recent comments from Saudi Arabia which confirmed its strong commitment to stick to existing output reduction program which includes world’s major oil producers and was reinforced by comments from UAE energy minister who said that oil producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia aim to draft agreement on a long-term alliance to cut oil production by the end of the year.
Thursday’s extension and close above $61.34 (Fibo 61.8% of $66.64/$58.06 fall) was bullish signal, but mixed setup of daily MA’s; overbought slow stochastic and weak momentum weigh and warn of recovery stall despite firmly bullish sentiment.
However, near-term action remains underpinned by rising daily cloud (cloud top lies at $61.28 and marks initial and significant support) with bullish outlook to remain in play while cloud top holds.
In addition, WTI contract is on track for strong bullish weekly close after suffering heavy losses in past two weeks, which is bullish signal and will be reinforced by weekly close above $61.34 Fibo barrier.
Extension through next barrier at $62.35 (daily Kijun-sen) will be bullish signal, while return and close below cloud top could be negative signal of recovery stall and fresh weakness.

Res: 61.87; 62.35; 62.83; 63.36
Sup: 61.28; 61.09; 60.81; 60.08

Interested in OIL technicals? Check out the key levels

1. R3 61.76
2. R2 61.63
3. R1 61.54
PP 61.41
1. S1 61.32
2. S2 61.19
3. S3 61.1

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

EUR/USD weakens as US jobs data trims Fed rate cut bets

The EUR/USD pair trades in negative territory for the third consecutive day near 1.1860 during the early European session on Thursday. Traders will keep an eye on the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. On Friday, the attention will shift to the US Consumer Price Index inflation report.

GBP/USD bullish outlook prevails above 1.3600, UK GDP data looms

The GBP/USD pair gains ground near 1.3635, snapping the two-day losing streak during the early European session on Thursday. The preliminary reading of UK Gross Domestic Product for the fourth quarter will be closely watched later on Thursday. The UK economy is estimated to grow 0.2% QoQ in Q4, versus 0.1% in Q1.

Gold remains on the defensive below two-week top; lacks bearish conviction amid mixed cues

Gold sticks to modest intraday losses through the Asian session on Thursday, though it lacks follow-through selling and remains close to a nearly two-week high, touched the previous day. The commodity currently trades above the $5,070 level, down just over 0.20% for the day, amid mixed cues.

UK GDP set to post weak growth as markets rise bets on March rate cut

Markets will be watching closely on Thursday, when the United Kingdom’s Office for National Statistics will release the advance estimate of Q4 Gross Domestic Product. If the data land in line with consensus, the UK economy would have continued to grow at an annualised pace of 1.2%, compared with 1.3% recorded the previous year.

The market trades the path not the past

The payroll number did not just beat. It reset the tone. 130,000 vs. 65,000 expected, with a 35,000 whisper. 79 of 80 economists leaning the wrong way. Unemployment and underemployment are edging lower. For all the statistical fog around birth-death adjustments and seasonal quirks, the core message was unmistakable. The labour market is not cracking.

XRP sell-off deepens amid weak retail interest, risk-off sentiment

Ripple (XRP) is edging lower around $1.36 at the time of writing on Wednesday, weighed down by low retail interest and macroeconomic uncertainty, which is accelerating risk-off sentiment.