Weekly waves: EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Bitcoin

EUR/USD bullish correction aims at 1.05

The EUR/USD is breaking above the previous daily highs. Let’s review that to expect next:

1. The EUR/USD bullish breakout is occurring after price action has made a higher low.

2. The larger bearish 3 wave pattern is probably an ABC (yellow) zigzag of a larger WXY correction (gray).

3. The WXY (gray) should fit within a complex wave 4 pattern (pink).

4. The wave 4 (pink) is the main Elliott Wave analysis as long as price action respects the Fibonacci resistance levels and ideally stays below the 38.2% Fibonacci level.

5. Waves 4 are usually complex, lengthy and shallow corrections so a strong bearish bounce at the 38.2% Fibonacci level after a long correction is expected.

6. A break above the 50% Fibonacci level indicates an uptrend rather than a downtrend.

GBP/USD bullish swing aims at 38.2% Fib at 1.25

The GBP/USD has also made a bullish breakout above the resistance trend lines (dotted orange):

1. The GBP/USD seems to be in the same spot and situation as the EUR/USD.

2. We are expecting an ABC (gray) pattern or WXY correction within a wave 4 (pink).

3. The wave 4 remains valid as long as price action respects the shallow Fibonacci levels.

4. A bullish breakout above resistance (red box) could see a push up towards the 38.2% Fibonacci level.

5. A bearish bounce at the 38.2% Fibonacci level is then the most expected scenario.

6. A downtrend continuation could aim for a lower low around 1.15.

BTC/USD bullish bounce aims at $30k

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has not made a lower low for at least 4 weeks, which is increasing the chance that the wave A (gray) correction is completed:

1. After completing the potential wave A (gray), the BTC/USD is therefore expected to make a bullish retracement within a wave B (gray).

2. The first target is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level near 30k, which is a heavy resistance zone.

3. A bearish bounce is expected at this 23.6% Fibonacci target.

4. A higher low could then confirm a larger ABC (yellow) within wave B (gray).

5. Another bullish push up towards the 38.2% Fibonacci is then expected, which could also be a bearish bouncing spot to test the support again.

6. Price will then either bounce at support for a move up towards the 50% Fibonacci or for a bearish break and a new low.

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The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method simple wave analysis and trading. For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter