Weekly waves: EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Bitcoin

The EUR/USD bullish breakout is occurring after price action has made a higher low, which is probably a bullish WXY within a wave 4 and a larger downtrend.
A bullish breakout above resistance (red box) could see a push up towards the 38.2% Fibonacci level.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has not made a lower low for at least 4 weeks, which is increasing the chance that the wave A (gray) correction is completed.

Chris Svorcik FS method

EUR/USD bullish correction aims at 1.05

The EUR/USD is breaking above the previous daily highs. Let’s review that to expect next:

The EUR/USD bullish breakout is occurring after price action has made a higher low.
The larger bearish 3 wave pattern is probably an ABC (yellow) zigzag of a larger WXY correction (gray).
The WXY (gray) should fit within a complex wave 4 pattern (pink).
The wave 4 (pink) is the main Elliott Wave analysis as long as price action respects the Fibonacci resistance levels and ideally stays below the 38.2% Fibonacci level.
Waves 4 are usually complex, lengthy and shallow corrections so a strong bearish bounce at the 38.2% Fibonacci level after a long correction is expected.
A break above the 50% Fibonacci level indicates an uptrend rather than a downtrend.

GBP/USD bullish swing aims at 38.2% Fib at 1.25

The GBP/USD has also made a bullish breakout above the resistance trend lines (dotted orange):

The GBP/USD seems to be in the same spot and situation as the EUR/USD.
We are expecting an ABC (gray) pattern or WXY correction within a wave 4 (pink).
The wave 4 remains valid as long as price action respects the shallow Fibonacci levels.
A bullish breakout above resistance (red box) could see a push up towards the 38.2% Fibonacci level.
A bearish bounce at the 38.2% Fibonacci level is then the most expected scenario.
A downtrend continuation could aim for a lower low around 1.15.

BTC/USD bullish bounce aims at $30k

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has not made a lower low for at least 4 weeks, which is increasing the chance that the wave A (gray) correction is completed:

After completing the potential wave A (gray), the BTC/USD is therefore expected to make a bullish retracement within a wave B (gray).
The first target is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level near 30k, which is a heavy resistance zone.
A bearish bounce is expected at this 23.6% Fibonacci target.
A higher low could then confirm a larger ABC (yellow) within wave B (gray).
Another bullish push up towards the 38.2% Fibonacci is then expected, which could also be a bearish bouncing spot to test the support again.
Price will then either bounce at support for a move up towards the 50% Fibonacci or for a bearish break and a new low.

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method simple wave analysis and trading. For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

Author

Chris Svorcik

FS method

Chris Svorcik is a trader, analyst, and educator with over 15 years of experience in financial markets, specializing in moving averages, market structure, and price patterns.

GBP/USD dips below 1.3350 with bullish momentum losing steam

The British Pound ticks lower against the US Dollar Monday, attempting to close a seven-day rally, as tensions rise again in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the critical points in the peace process between Washington and Tehran. The GBP/USD pair trades near 1.3340 at the time of writing, down from 1.3387 highs last week, although it maintains a near-term bullish trend intact.

EUR/USD extends the range play above 1.1400 as Hormuz risks support USD

The EUR/USD pair extends its sideways consolidative price move during the Asian session on Tuesday, though it manages to hold comfortably above the 1.1400 mark. Moreover, spot prices remain well within striking distance of a nearly two-week high, touched last Thursday.

Gold remains depressed below $4,200 as receding Fed hike bets limit losses

Gold trades with a negative bias below $4,200 for the second straight day, though it remains within striking distance of a two-week high set the previous day amid mixed cues. Tensions over the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated, lending some support to the safe-haven US Dollar and weighing on the bullion. However, receding bets on further Fed rate hikes keep USD bulls on the back foot and help limit downside for the non-yielding yellow metal.

Bitcoin treasury model tested as Strategy sells 3,588 BTC

Bitcoin briefly dropped below $63,000 on Monday after Strategy announced it sold 3,588 BTC from its corporate treasury, raising approximately $216 million. The proceeds were used to fund dividend payments under its Digital Credit Capital Framework, according to a Form 8-K filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

The US Dollar just beat the Swiss Franc at its own safe-haven game

As the king among safe havens, the Swiss Franc is supposed to benefit from geopolitical shocks such as the Iran war. This time, it didn’t. The Swissie is nearly 6% below January’s peak against the USD after a sharp decline that came along with the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Kevin Warsh offers no policy clues: Why markets still got their answer

Financial markets came to Sintra looking for clues about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next move. They largely left with confirmation that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh intends to make those clues much harder to find.