Weekly technical analysis – Oil, Gold, AUD/USD [Video]

US-Iran tensions – Oil

Geopolitical tensions are taking center stage this week as President Trump’s rejection of Iran’s Strait of Hormuz proposal keeps markets on edge.

WTI crude is caught in a tight tug-of-war, keeping a foothold around its 20-day simple moving average near 97.00. While technical indicators hint that another bullish wave remains possible, buyers face their first true test at the psychological 100.60 barrier. A clean break above that mark opens a path toward 105.80, with major resistance waiting higher near 109.25.

On the flip side, losing 93.50 could trigger fresh selling, while a drop below the 50-day SMA at 89.15 would confirm deeper bearish control.

US Nonfarm Payrolls – Gold

Gold suffered a sharp setback after failing to clear 4,300, plunging 2.5% to 4,140, its lowest mark since early August. Surging bond yields and a resurgent US dollar are weighing heavily, as fears mount that persistent Middle East conflict will reignite inflation and force central banks into further tightening.

Traders are now bracing for a heavy slate of US economic data. Upside surprises in core PCE or ISM input prices could boost expectations for another rate hike, but Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report remains the main event. A slowdown in hiring to 84k as expected may not deter the Fed from raising interest rates unless the unemployment rate rises enough to spark stagflation concerns.

Gold sellers must break critical support at 4,100 to target the July double bottom near 3,940. If growth fears instead prompt a bullish rebound, buyers need to reclaim the 20- and 50-day SMAs to aim for 4,530.

RBA policy decision – AUD/USD

Meanwhile, the sell-off in AUDUSD has stabilized around the 0.7000 round-level ahead of Tuesday’s RBA meeting, where a 25-basis-point hike to 4.60% is widely expected. Hawkish signals from Governor Bullock supporting another rate increase in December, paired with hot CPI figures on Wednesday, could spark a short-term rally out of oversold territory.

Yet the bulls must first clear resistance at 0.7050 and the 50-day SMA at 0.7100 to reach the 20-day SMA around 0.7130. Alternatively, a drop below 0.7000 threatens a deeper slip toward 0.6950.