Weekly Focus: Riksbank may be next to join 'exit camp'

Market Movers ahead 

  • We look for the FOMC to announce 'quantitative tightening' and signal one more rate hike this year when it meets on Wednesday.
  • We expect EUR manufacturing PMI to show a slight drop from the current strong level as the stronger euro is likely to weigh a bit on euro exports. We also look for a small decline in the German ZEW index. 
  • Chinese house price inflation for August is likely to show a further moderation as tightening measures are starting to dampen home sales and prices. 
  • Bank of Japan: we expect it to keep its policy stance unchanged. 
  • In Scandinavia, the Riksbank's minutes should give more insight into how close the bank is to joining the 'exit' camp. We don't expect any rate change or change to the rate path from Norges Bank at its meeting on Thursday. 

Global macro and market themes 

  • Central bankers look increasingly divided into those in the 'exit' camp (Fed, BoE, ECB), those in the 'no exit camp' (BoJ, SNB), and those in between (Riksbank, Norges Bank). 
  • While the Fed looks determined to hike in December, it is unlikely to drive a major sell-off in EUR/USD. 

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