One of the marked seasonal patterns around year-end in the currency space is that the dollar tends to fall. The weakness in the dollar causes a marked strength in EURUSD. So, watch out for any EURUSD strength starting from around December 20. Look at the strong seasonal pattern here.

Over the last 15 years, the EURUSD has risen between Dec 21 and Dec 30. The largest gain has been +1.55% in 2007 and the largest loss was -0.74% in 2011. The percentage of winning trades has been 68.18%. The annualized return is 35.95%.

Major Trade Risks: The main risk to this seasonal pattern would be if omicron variant fears result in strong risk-off trading which could send the USD sharply higher on possible dollar risk-off flows.


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High Risk Investment Warning: Contracts for Difference (‘CFDs’) are complex financial products that are traded on margin. Trading CFDs carries a high degree of risk. It is possible to lose all your capital. These products may not be suitable for everyone and you should ensure that you understand the risks involved. Seek independent expert advice if necessary and speculate only with funds that you can afford to lose. Please think carefully whether such trading suits you, taking into consideration all the relevant circumstances as well as your personal resources. We do not recommend clients posting their entire account balance to meet margin requirements. Clients can minimise their level of exposure by requesting a change in leverage limit. For more information please refer to HYCM’s Risk Disclosure.

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