Gobal indices jumped ahead of the US open on positive findings about an experimental coronavirus vaccine from Pfizer and BioNtech, which produced a high level of antibodies. Tuesday's news of stronger US consumer confidence data and stable US virus cases were sufficient to boost risk trades to a strong finish for the quarter. ADP jobs data also came in stronger than expected. The ISM manufacturing survey is due up next. The chart below shows positive US economic data surprises are away ahead of the rest, raising the question about sustainability. Each of the last two Premium trades is up +250 pts and open.


US consumer confidence continued to rebound in the June report at 98.1 compared to 91.4 expected. That continues a series of strong beats in US economic data. Particularly encouraging was a jump in the 'expectations' component to 106.0 from 96.9 a month earlier.

The data helped to launch risk trades higher, including a 1.5% rise in the S&P 500 and large gains in the commodity currencies. More broadly, the US dollar was under significant pressure, likely due to quarter-end flows.

In terms of COVID-19, cases in US hotspots remained at high levels but there was some leveling off in Florida. We warn that's likely due to weekly trends and is likely to reverse in the day ahead. In Texas, Arizona and several smaller states, cases hit record highs.

On the quarter, the Australian dollar was the best performer by a significant margin with NZD in second place. Clustered at the bottom were the yen, pound and US dollar.

Year-to-date performance, however, offers a clearer picture of impact of the virus with the Swiss franc on top and the pound lagging. Within all that, there have been dozens of major swings.

In equity markets, the moves were massive. For US stocks, it was the best quarter since 1998 and the the first time a +20% quarter marked a -20% quarter since 1932. Within US stocks, the divergence was stark with the DJIA up 17.8% and the Nasdaq up 30.6%. Elsewhere, the FTSE 100 rose a relatively modest 8.8% while the DAX climbed 23.9%.

The day ahead features more economic data and we remind readers that non-farm payrolls will be on Thursday rather than the usual Friday slot accounting for the US holiday. The market is likely to focus on the ISM manufacturing report for June. A series of regional numbers have beaten the consensus, some by a larger margin so risks to the 49.9 consensus are undoubtedly on the upside.

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Analysis feed

FXStreet Trading Signals now available!

Access to real-time signals, community and guidance now!

Latest Analysis

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD pressured toward 1.17 amid higher US yields

EUR/USD is falling toward 1.17 as US bond yields rise amid the US fiscal impasse and ahead of US inflation figures. Coronavirus headlines and eurozone industrial output are also in play.


GBP/USD rises toward 1.3050 as UK Q2 GDP falls 20.4%

GBP/USD is rising toward 1.3050 after UK Q2 GDP fell by 20.4%, marginally above expectations. The devastating drop was priced in by markets and US inflation is now eyed.


Gold bounces above $1,900 after rapid collapse

Gold is trading above $1,900 recovering from the biggest rout in seven years. Profit-taking and higher US yields weigh on the precious metal. US inflation figures are eyed.

Gold News

Forex Today: Gold sell-off extends, dollar reigns supreme amid fiscal impasse, ahead of data

US bond yields are on the rise, supporting the recovering dollar and contributing to a sell-off in precious metals. The lack of progress in US fiscal talks and the increase in America's coronavirus deaths are among the depressing factors. US CPI is eyed.

Read more

WTI: Big move looks overdue

WTI could soon witness a big move in either direction. That’s because, the spread between Bollinger bands – volatility indicators placed 2 standard deviations above and below the 20-day simple moving average of price - has narrowed ...

Oil News

Forex Majors