USDX price outlook: US Dollar Index holds above 0.618 support Arc, potential rebound toward 99.22

Mohamad Gharib Independent Analyst

US Dollar Index (USDX): Arc cycle analysis

Overview: Based on Arc Cycle Analysis applied to the 2h chart, the US Dollar Index is interacting with the 0.618 Support Arc within the current Arc Cycle. Price is holding above this Support Arc, suggesting the potential for a bullish rebound toward the next Resistance Arc.

Metric	Reading
Market Bias	Neutral-Bullish
Preferred Scenario	Potential Rebound / Advance Toward the Next Resistance Arc
Primary Target Zone	99.22
Scenario Invalidation	Sustained close below 98.75
Current Arc Level	Support Arc (0.618)
Cycle Status	Testing Support Arc
Arc Integrity	Strong

Market outlook

Price is holding above the 0.618 Support Arc, indicating that this Arc continues to provide support within the current Arc Cycle. If the Support Arc continues to hold, a rebound toward 99.22 price becomes the preferred scenario.

Conversely, a sustained 2h close below the Support Arc at 98.75 would invalidate the bullish scenario and shift the outlook toward the next Support Arc.

Author

Mohamad Gharib

Independent Analyst

Mohamad Gharib is a Financial Markets Analyst and Quantitative Researcher with more than 18 years of experience in financial markets, including 15 years as an FX Quant Trader.

AUD/USD remains below 0.7000 amid light trading

AUD/USD fills a modest bearish gap on Monday, but remains below 0.7000 in the Asian session amid holiday-thinned liquidity. The US Dollar attempts a bounce even as US bond yields pull back from multi-year highs, limiting the pair. Moreover, diminishing odds of another RBA rate hike in November cap the Aussie.

USD/JPY hovers above 158.00 amid Japan/ US holiday

USD/JPY extends its range-bound price action into a new week, trading above 158.00 as bulls remain on high alert amid speculation that authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, softer US bond yields keep US Dollar bulls on the back foot and cap the pair's upside. However, geopolitical uncertainties could limit losses for the safe-haven buck amid thin liquidity due to a holiday in Japan and the US.

Gold buyers retain control as the US CPI week begins

Gold is extending its recovery from a two-month low of $4,067 into a new week on Monday, trying to remain above the $4,200 level amid a pause in the US Dollar retreat from an 18-month peak.

Bitcoin reclaims $83,500, Ethereum takes back 50-day EMA, XRP holds support

Bitcoin (BTC) takes back $83,500 on Monday after a sharp correction, with the Crypto King slipping below $81,000 the previous week. Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) followed BTC’s footsteps, recovering and reclaiming the $2,500 and $1.400 marks after a pullback last week.

USD/INR drops 1% at open as RBI steps up measures to support Indian Rupee

The Indian Rupee (INR) opens significantly higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday. The USD/INR pair falls 1% to near 95.80 as Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) fresh measures to curb US Dollar demand has brought relief for the Indian currency.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?