USD/TRY outlook: Extended consolidation likely to precede fresh strength

USD/TRY

Turkish lira performed a bit better vs US dollar in May but remains within broader range above new record low.

USDTRY stays in prolonged sideways mode, with persisting risk of fresh rise, as fundamentals work against Turkey’s currency and daily technical studies show room for the further upside.

Momentum indicator is emerging into positive territory and RSI moved above the neutrality zone, though still looking for firmer bullish signal as the price remains within rising daily cloud and MA’s are in mixed setup.

Sustained break above daily cloud top at 32.400 (also 50% retracement of 32.836/31.966 pullback) is needed to firm near-term structure and shift focus to the upside.

Slightly improved economic situation in the country helped lira a bit, but high interest rate and sharp rise in trade deficit threaten to fully offset initial positive signals and add darker colors into lira’s short-term outlook.

Res: 32.40; 32.50; 32.63; 32.83.
Sup: 32.28; 32.18; 31.96; 31.03.