US10Y price outlook: US government bonds 10 YR yield navigating between arc levels

Mohamad Gharib Independent Analyst

US government bonds 10 YR yield (US10Y): Arc cycle analysis

Overview: Based on Arc Cycle Analysis applied to the 1W chart, the 10-Year US Treasury Yield have cleared the 0.786 Arc boundary and are progressing toward the 1 (100%) Arc, suggesting continued movement toward the next Arc expansion level..

Metric	Reading
Market Bias	Bullish
Preferred Scenario	Potential Continuation
Primary Target Zone	5.00%
Scenario Invalidation	Sustained close back below 3.75%
Current Arc Level	In Transit Between Arcs
Cycle Status	Mid-Cycle Migration Phase
Arc Integrity	Neutral

Market outlook

Yields is progressing through the current Arc Cycle toward the next Arc boundary. If momentum continues, the preferred scenario is continued movement toward the Target price 5.00% .

Conversely, a sustained 1W close back below the 3.75% would invalidate the continuation scenario and could shift the outlook toward the Previous Arc Cycle.

Author

Mohamad Gharib

Independent Analyst

Mohamad Gharib is a Financial Markets Analyst and Quantitative Researcher with more than 18 years of experience in financial markets, including 15 years as an FX Quant Trader.

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