UK retail sales Preview: World Cup football success failed to support sales in June with July barely rising

The UK retail sales are expected to rise 0.2% over the month in July while increasing 3.0% over the year.
The core sales excluding motor fuels sales are seen rising 0.1% m/m in July while increasing 2.8% y/y.
Hot weather keeps shoppers hiding from the sun rather than shopping in the high street.

The UK total retail sales are expected to rise 0.2% over the month in July after unexpectedly falling by -0.5% m/m in June, the Office for National Statistics is scheduled to report on Thursday, August 15 at 8:30 GMT. Total retail sales are seen rising 3.0% over the year, up from 2.9% in June. 

The core retail sales stripping the gauge off motor fuel sales are expected to increase by 0.1% m/m while rising 2.8% y/y.

The progress of the English football team in the World Cup in Russia was expected to boost the BBQ and beer sales in June but failed to materialize with total sales falling 0.5% m/m and core retail sales down 0.6% m/m. In July, when the the World Cup actually moved to the knock-out phase that is definitely more exciting than the group stage played in June, the English national football team did better proceeding all the way to the semifinals. The kick higher is retail sales from the knock-out phase is also unlikely.

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) publishing its own report on the UK retail sales in cooperation with KPMG reported total sales rising 0.5% m/m in July and also remains rather pessimistic about the outlook for UK retail sales.

According to Helen Dickinson, the BRC chief executive “for all the hopes placed on the World Cup and the glorious weather, it seems retail sales still fell short of expectations, growing only 0.5% on a like-for-like basis in July 2018. It was perhaps just too hot to hit the high street!”

While weather kept shopper off shopping in the high street, the food and beverages sales are still the core of the UK retail sales as BBQs, picnics and football festivities booming in July. As noted by Paul Martin, UK Head of Retail at KPMG “growth was mainly witnessed among the holiday essential categories, including health & beauty, deck chairs, and fashion.”

Contributions to UK retail sales in JUne 2018