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UK ekes out £2.1bn goods trade surplus in 2024 with US as it looks to avoid tariffs

2024 UK Trade Data reveals a balanced trading relationship with the US, boosting tariff avoidance hopes.

The latest ONS trade data published this morning reveals that across 2024, the UK exported £58.7 billion in goods to the US, 3.6% or £2.1 billion more than the £56.6 billion total value of goods it imported from the US.

While the data show that the UK currently is in surplus with the US, it still demonstrates a broadly balanced relationship when it comes to goods.

The latest figures reinforce the 2023 trade in goods surplus of £2.5 billion and mark the continuation of a goods surplus with the US since 1999 - with the exception of 2022 when the UK had a deficit of £1.9 billion due to an increase in gas imports (Ukraine-Russia energy crisis).

Samuel Edwards, Head of Dealing at global financial services firm Ebury, commented: “Analysis of today’s trade data shows that 2024 saw the UK holding a £2.1 billion trade in goods surplus with the US.

The small size of the surplus, especially in comparison with many of the United States’ trading partners, is likely to support hopes from the Government that the UK can minimise or avoid any potential tariffs imposed by President Trump.

We are already seeing the impacts of the 25% steel and aluminium tariffs on our client base, forcing difficult conversations about staff and production costs. Any further measures could see the pain spread into other key sectors in the UK at a time of economic uncertainty and stuttering economic growth.

In this fraught environment, we would urge businesses to consider implementing robust hedging strategies to minimise their FX risk exposure, and to ensure ready access to finance to weather any storms, whether they be domestic or from overseas.

Author

Matthew Ryan, CFA

Matthew is Global Head of Market Strategy at FX specialist Ebury, where he has been part of the strategy team since 2014. He provides fundamental FX analysis for a wide range of G10 and emerging market currencies.

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