Alexander Kuptsikevich
FxPro Financial Services Limited
The US will release its official labour market report tomorrow, and traders are busy analysing data from related indicators, which consistently point to a market improvement rather than a looming recession.
The fast-growing indicator for new vacancies rose again in recent years, reaching over 10 million in April, defying the expected drop from 9.7 million to 9.4 million. For comparison, it was around 7.5 million at the end of 2018, with a similar unemployment rate, and peaked at 12 million last March.
Weekly jobless claims numbers have increased but are still better than expected. We also note that the upward trend formed last October was broken in May. The movement of this indicator resembles the small fluctuations we also saw in 2018 and 2019.
The third indicator closely resembles the NFP is the change in private sector employment from ADP. It reported an employment increase of 278k from 291k a month earlier, about 100k above the average analysts’ expectations. Since the beginning of the week, the markets had been expecting employment growth of around 190k, according to the analyst estimate.
But the latest data will almost certainly raise these expectations significantly to last month’s levels of around 253k. Particular attention should be paid to the dynamics of hourly earnings. A sharp rise from the current 4.4% y/y would leave the Fed with no choice but to hike the rate further.
Trade Responsibly. CFDs and Spread Betting are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77.37% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs and Spread Betting with this provider. The Analysts' opinions are for informational purposes only and should not be considered as a recommendation or trading advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD loses traction, retreats below 1.0600
EUR/USD lost its recovery momentum and declined below 1.0600 in the American session on Friday, erasing a portion of its daily gains in the process. Nevertheless, the risk-positive market atmosphere after PCE inflation data helps the pair limit its losses.
GBP/USD turns negative on the day below 1.2200
GBP/USD reversed its direction and slumped below 1.2200 in the American session on Friday after rising above 1.2270 earlier in the day. Position readjustments and profit-taking on the last trading day of the quarter seems to be weighing on Pound Sterling.
Gold reverses direction, drops below $1,860
Following a steady rebound toward $1,880 on Friday, Gold price made a sharp U-turn and turned negative on the day near $1,860. Although the 10-year US T-bond yield is down more than 1%, XAU/USD struggles to find demand on the last day of Q3.
Polkadot Price Forecast: DOT reversal seems inevitable after 92% correction from all-time high
Polkadot price, in nearly two years, has shed 92.91% from its all-time high of $55.09. The massive downswing in DOT has pushed it down to levels that were last seen in October 2020. Hence, the chances of this altcoin forming a bottom and rallying are high.
Earnings beat triggers Nike to spike 9%
Nike (NKE) stock has surged over 9% in Friday’s premarket, climbing above $98 per share, following late Thursday’s fiscal first-quarter earnings release. Nike beat pessimistic earnings expectations by more than 23% and hiked its dividend by 9%.