Weekly Market Overview

What a positive week for risk. The USMCA deal was completed and focus immediately, shifted onto the December 15 tariffs and whether President Trump was going to delay them or not. On Thursday Trump tweeted that the US was getting ‘VERY close to a BIG DEAL with China, they want it and so do we’. Tariffs were rolled back and reduced and Phase 2 negotiations are due to start after the 2020 Presidential elections. Risk assets spiked higher (Oil, AUD, NZD and CAD) while safe havens gold and silver fell alongside JPY and CHF. In the UK the Conservative party se-cured a majority win and the GBP soared +2% on the news that Brexit will finally happen for the UK. What a week for risk.


Key events from the past week

AUD: RBA rate statement, Tuesday Dec 3 Governor Lowe indicated that the RBA are at a pause in their rate cuts. They hinted they were happier on the side-lines than the market was expecting. This initially resulted in AUD strength which was eventually supported into the end of the week by the positive risk tone.

USD: FOMC statement, Wednesday Dec 11 Powell repeated his phrase from the last rate statement that he would need to see a ‘significant move up in inflation that’s persistent before we would even consider raising rates’. It was a dovish hold and interest rates are expected to stay at current levels for now. USD fell.

EUR: ECB statement Thursday Dec 12 The first rate statement from the new ECB President Christine Lagarde was eagerly awaited, but there were few surprises. The ECB said that risks remain tilted to the downside and international trade uncertainty continues to weigh on eurozone manufacturing data. There was a repeat of Draghi’s appeal for fiscal stimulus and no surprises.


Key events for the coming week

NZD: GDP and Business Confidence, December 17 & 18 The RBNZ have made a shift to data dependence going forward with only a 20% chance of a cut seen at their February meeting. GDP data will be key this week.

CAD: Inflation, Wednesday,  December 18   Inflation in Canada stood at 1.9% at the October print and all the core measures were between 1.9% & 2.2%. In addition, the economy performed better in Q3 at 1.3%. However, labour data was weak last Friday. A strong inflation print here will keep the BoC’s confidence

AUD: Employment data, Thursday,  December 19 The RBA took a more hawkish tone at their December rate meeting, but the data since then has been rather weak. A weak labour reading here will cause more doubt over whether the Australian economy has really reached a ‘gentle turning point’.



Learn more about HYCM


High Risk Investment Warning: Contracts for Difference (‘CFDs’) are complex financial products that are traded on margin. Trading CFDs carries a high degree of risk. It is possible to lose all your capital. These products may not be suitable for everyone and you should ensure that you understand the risks involved. Seek independent expert advice if necessary and speculate only with funds that you can afford to lose. Please think carefully whether such trading suits you, taking into consideration all the relevant circumstances as well as your personal resources. We do not recommend clients posting their entire account balance to meet margin requirements. Clients can minimise their level of exposure by requesting a change in leverage limit. For more information please refer to HYCM’s Risk Disclosure.

Analysis feed

FXStreet Trading Signals now available!

Access to real-time signals, community and guidance now!

Latest Analysis

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD stabilizing as US coronavirus cases continue to climb

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1250, pressured amid concerns about the spread of coronavirus in the US. Traders are digesting the upbeat Non-Farm Payrolls figures already out ahead of the long US weekend. 


GBP/USD attempting a bounce amid thin liquidity

GBP/USD is closer to 1.25, off the lows. Top-level EU-UK Brexit talks have been postponed until next week amid disagreements. The UK is continuing to reopen while US coronavirus cases are surging. 


Bitcoin must endorse the time of Ethereum has come

The crypto market remains in a choke point, and after signs of a possible upward shift yesterday, the market was once again disappointed to see Bitcoin in the low range of the $8900 to $9000 choke point.

Read more

Gold: There is a bearish signal on the 4-hour chart

Price action has been slow on Friday due to the bank holiday in the US as the nation celebrates independence day. This week has been an interesting one as there has been some good economic data but some very bad coronavirus news in the US. 

Gold News

S&P 500: Futures struggle to refresh two-week top

S&P 500 Futures prints mild loss of 0.10% while declining to 3,126 during the initial hour of Tokyo session on Friday. In doing so, the risk barometer fails to extend the previous four-day winning streak.

Read more

Forex Majors