The picture in Gold has become more complicated: What is happening today

RoboForex Analysis Department RoboForex

Gold dipped below 4,400 USD per ounce on Tuesday, reversing earlier gains. Pressure on the metal intensified amid a broader correction in the metals market and profit-taking following a strong rally.

An additional negative factor was the rise in oil prices, which once again heightened inflation risks and concerns over interest rates.

The geopolitical backdrop also remains tense. Prospects for a new US-Iran agreement deteriorated after Donald Trump announced that he was not interested in extending the interim peace deal.

At the same time, gold continues to draw support from diminished expectations of Federal Reserve tightening, following a series of weak US economic data. Markets are now primarily pricing in a rate hold in September, with a hike by year-end no longer fully priced in-a marked shift from just a week ago.

Additional support for the metal is coming from investment demand and central bank purchases, particularly from China.

Technical analysis

On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the market formed a consolidation range around the 4,370 USD level and, with an upside breakout, completed a growth wave to 4,435 USD. A consolidation range is now forming below this level. A downside move and decline to 4,370 USD is expected, with a possible extension to 4,340 USD. Further growth to 4,516 USD is anticipated as a local target. The MACD indicator confirms the beginning of short-term downside momentum, with its signal line above the centre line and bracing for further lows.

On the H1 chart, the market broke above the 4,372 USD level and completed a growth wave structure to 4,434 USD, followed by a correction to test 4,372 USD from above. A broad consolidation range is practically forming around 4,372 USD. A range expansion up to 4,516 USD is expected, followed by a decline to 4,444 USD. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line remaining below the 20 level and pointing strictly upwards to 80.

Conclusion

Gold's outlook has become more complex as the metal retreats from recent highs amid profit-taking and a broader metals market correction. Rising oil prices have rekindled inflation concerns, while geopolitical tensions have worsened following Trump's rejection of an extended US-Iran peace deal. However, support remains from diminished Fed tightening expectations after weak US data, with markets no longer fully pricing a hike by year-end. Central bank buying, particularly from China, continues to underpin demand. Technically, gold may see further short-term downside towards 4,340–4,370 USD before potentially resuming its uptrend towards 4,516 USD. The metal's direction will hinge on US economic data, geopolitical developments, and signals from the Federal Reserve.

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RoboForex Analysis Department

RoboForex

RoboForex Analysis Department provides timely market insights, expert technical analysis, and actionable forecasts across forex, commodities, indices, and equities.

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