Technical outlook on USD/JPY, GBP/USD, Nasdaq 100 [Video]

USDJPY trades under pressure below 160 as markets brace for Fed and BoJ decisions
GBPUSD extends its recovery above 1.3500 ahead of the BoE meeting
US 100 eyes further gains as tech earnings take center stage – but can the bulls stay in control?

Christina Parthenidou XM

Fed, BoJ central bank meetings → USDJPY

All eyes turn to Jerome Powell on Wednesday for what could be his final FOMC policy meeting before he hands over the reins to Kevin Warsh – unless he chooses to stay on the board and bravely defend the central bank’s independence through uncertain geopolitical times.

Markets widely expect the Fed to hold interest rates at 3.50–3.75%, but this “no-dot” meeting may shift attention to Powell’s tone instead. Traders will be listening closely for any inflation warnings ahead of Thursday’s core PCE release, expected to tick up to 3.2% y/y in March.

If Powell leans hawkish, USDJPY could quickly retest 159.80 and challenge the 160 barrier again, but the Bank of Japan could first drag the pair towards the key floor of 158.50-159.00 if it hints at a summer rate hike during Tuesday’s policy meeting.

Hovering above all scenarios is the threat of Japanese intervention, which may cap or erase any move beyond 160.00, especially as the broader uptrend shows signs of fatigue.

BoE rate decision → GBPUSD

The Bank of England steps in on Thursday, likely keeping rates flat at 3.75%, but with inflation climbing to 3.3% y/y in March, the risk of a hawkish twist lingers. Nevertheless, the geopolitical backdrop complicates the policy outlook, while a five-year high unemployment rate at 5.2% could make tightening a tough call.

Against this mix, GBPUSD continues to recover, holding firm above 1.3500. Momentum signals favors the upside, but the bulls may first need to clear the 1.3600 border to extend the rebound narrative and access the 1.3700 region.

US tech earnings → US 100

In equities, the spotlight shifts to US big tech earnings releases. Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon report on Wednesday after the close – just hours after Powell’s press conference –followed by Apple on Thursday.

This time, traders may react more aggressively to surprises, particularly around AI spending, monetization, and forward guidance as the US 100 index is hovering around fresh all-time highs. Encouragingly, the index has already made its case: a completed pennant pattern points to further upside. But the rally from March lows looks stretched, and last-week's break above 27,000 raises the risk of near-term profit-taking, especially with geopolitical tensions still in play.

If the bulls maintain control, the next chapter could unfold in the 28,000–28,420 zone.

Author

Christina Parthenidou

Christina joined Trading Point in May 2017. She holds a master degree in Economics and Business from the Erasmus University Rotterdam with a specialization in International economics.

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